Eq: Total Market

(New York)

Markets are ugly right now, but one of the important questions is whether the bottom is really going to fall out. Well, one measure suggests the market is steadier than it seems. Both the put-call ratio and the TRIN ration (ratio of advancing versus declining stocks) both suggest investors aren’t panicking. The put-call ratio is only at 1.04, or 104 puts for every 100 calls, a very modest reading. Additionally, the TRIN is only 1.27, not drastic.

FINSUM: One institutional investor made a good point about the market right now—that it might take some hard economic data to show the market that its fears are real, and thus set the stage for a recovery. In other words, the specter of a recession may be worse for investors than the downturn itself.


Yesterday was a big moment for Fed and the markets. Trump has come down hard on the Fed for its relentless hikes, and the market is in the midst of a very rough period. Additionally, labor figures and inflation data have started to slip. All of that meant the Fed had the option of backing off the pedal on hikes. They didn’t, raising rates another quarter point. The central bank did make the small concession of saying they only planned to hike twice next year instead of the four increases they made this year.

FINSUM: The housing market is bad, the stock market is terrible, credit markets are weak, and inflation is falling. Why is the Fed still hiking?

(New York)

This is quite a market storm investors are facing. The rolling bear market has blossomed into a widespread rout with few hopeful signs. One of the scary parts for investors is that the old places to ride out such market storms are not collapsing. In other words, even safe havens aren’t safe. Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities, all typically bastions of protection during downturns, fell to being this week. Utilities, for instance, fell over 3%, their worst tumble since the 2016 election day.

FINSUM: One analyst sees a silver lining in this. Their argument is that since this is becoming a broad pullback (instead of a rolling bear), it may indicate the worst is near to being over.

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