Politics

(Washington)

The Democrats may have won the House, but they are at a definitive crossroads. While the Republicans currently have a well-defined brand and agenda, the Democrats found themselves largely without a leader and without a clear agenda (other than being anti-Trump). That means they will have some big decisions to make in the near term as they try to mount a push for the presidency in 2020. There appear to be two major policy decisions the party is considering. The first is whether pursuing a fruitless impeachment against Donald Trump would be worthwhile, and the second, and frankly more intriguing question, is whether they will adopt a “Medicare for all” platform.


FINSUM: So much hangs in the balance right now. The Democrats have let themselves be overshadowed by the Republican party and will need to find their ideological and policy footing ahead of the next election. We expect the party’s agenda will move further left in order to serve as a mobilizing foil for its base.

(New York)

For the first time in over a decade, Wall Street is giving more to the Democratic party than the Republican party. For the last ten years, big Wall Street banks and financial houses have leaned towards giving more to Republicans, who had a more favorable policy agenda. However, the pendulum seems to have swung the other way on the back of the kind of disruptions some current Republican policies may bring to bear (e.g. trade war). Bankers themselves are also giving more to Democrats.


FINSUM: Bloomberg framed this giving as an attempt by Wall Street to “soften a blue wave”. That sounds like a fair characterization to us—Wall Street wants to make sure to soften the hard edge of some possible forthcoming democrat policies.

(Washington)

The GOP seems to be on its back foot heading into the midterm elections and that has the party nervous. The political bombing attempts and the synagogue horror have both sent Trump’s approval rating sharply lower. Now the party is worried that pre-Trump Republicans in affluent suburbs may not show up to vote, which is making them worry they may lose more ground than forecast. According to polls, this group of affluent long-term Republicans has a lower overall interest in the midterms, which may sap much needed votes against the more motivated Democrats.


FINSUM: This is a problem in itself, but the fact that the midterms have become so much of a referendum on Trump at the same time as his approval rating is falling is not a good sign for the party.

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