Eq: Total Market
Managing Partner and CIO of Renaissance Investment Management
Inflation data through October, released on November 10, showed an inflation rate below most expectations. If inflation has truly peaked and a serious recession is avoided, the historical evidence suggests that stocks are likely to do well going forward.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a 0.4% rise on a month-to-month basis and a 7.7% change on a year-over-year basis, with the latter being the lowest annual rate reported since January. The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy components) was also below expectations, rising 0.3% on a month-to-month basis and 6.3% on an annual basis.
Rolling 12-Month Change in CPI, 1/1/1946–11/1/2022
Sources: Renaissance Research, FactSet.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance for periods of one year or less is not annualized. All returns are shown in U.S. dollars. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item.
Annualized inflation has dropped meaningfully from its 8.5% rate in March. While it may be premature to declare that inflation has passed its highest level, it is still worthwhile to review what has happened in the past to stocks when inflation peaked.
The chart above shows the annualized change in the CPI over the post-WWII era, with peaks in inflation noted (we only marked periods when inflation peaked at rates above 5%, similar to the current environment). The table below shows the price change of the S&P 500® Index over the 1, 3, and 5-year periods after a peak in inflation.
Stocks have generally performed well following a peak in inflation, averaging a 59.2% gain in price five years afterward. The only periods when stocks did not post gains were in periods that included severe recessions, such as in 2008 and 1973-1974.
Stock Market Performance After Peaks in Inflation, 1/1/1946–11/1/2022
Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet.
The risk of a serious recession remains significant, as the Federal Reserve’s strategy of raising interest rates to choke off inflation may choke off economic growth as well. That said, if a serious recession is avoided partly because inflation peaked, historical precedent suggests that stocks are likely to do well in the future.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
This Market Update reflects the thoughts of Renaissance as of November 15, 2022. This information has been provided by Renaissance Investment Management. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision, nor should it be considered a recommendation. The views and opinions expressed are those of the Chief Investment Officer at the time of publication and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that these views will come to pass. As with all investments, there are associated inherent risks. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing.
If Renaissance or benchmark performance is shown, it represents historically achieved results, and is no guarantee of future performance. Future investments may be made under materially different economic conditions, in different securities, and using different investment strategies and these differences may have a significant effect on the results portrayed. Each of these material market or economic conditions may or may not be repeated. Therefore, there may be sharp differences between the benchmark or Renaissance performance shown and the actual performance results achieved by any particular client. Benchmark results are shown for comparison purposes only. The benchmark presented represents unmanaged portfolios whose characteristics differ from the composite portfolios; however, they tend to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. The benchmark cannot be invested in directly. The returns of the benchmark do not include any transaction costs, management fees, or other costs. The holdings of the client portfolios in our composites may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the benchmark shown. The benchmark has been selected to represent what Renaissance believes is an appropriate benchmark with which to compare the composite performance.
The value of an investment may fall as well as rise. Please note that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio. Investor principal is not guaranteed and investors may not receive the full amount of their investment at the time of sale if asset values have fallen. No assurance can be given that an investor will not lose invested capital. Consultants supplied with these performance results are advised to use this data in accordance with SEC guidelines. The actual performance achieved by a client portfolio may be affected by a variety of factors, including the initial balance of the account, the timing and amount of any additions to or withdrawals from the portfolio, changes made to the account to reflect the specific investment needs or preferences of the client, durations and timing of participation as a RIM client, and a client portfolio’s risk tolerance, investment objectives, and investment time horizon. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the loss of principal, and are not guaranteed by the U.S. government.
(Indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.)
S&P 500 Index—The S&P 500 Stock Index is a market capitalization weighted index and consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation.
S&P Midcap 400 Index—The S&P MidCap 400 Index, is a capitalization-weighted index that serves as a gauge for the U.S. mid-cap equities sector.
S&P Small Cap 600 Index—The S&P Small Cap 600 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of selected U.S. stocks with a small market capitalization.
S&P Dow Jones is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the S&P Indexes. S&P® is a trademark of S&P Dow Jones. This presentation may contain proprietary S&P data and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination, or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is a presentation of Renaissance Investment Management. S&P Dow Jones is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in Renaissance’s presentation thereof. This data is to be used for the recipient’s internal use only.
Most investors would rather go to the dentist than take a look at their portfolios this year. 2022 has been a tough year for investors with both the equity and the fixed-income markets experiencing large drawdowns. Unless you’ve been all in on commodities this year, your portfolio has likely taken a hit.
This has been especially true for investors with large exposure to technology stocks. The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which tracks the technology sector, is down 28% through October 21st. Out of the eleven SPDR Sector ETFs, only the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) are down more.
But who could blame an investor for a large technology allocation, especially with the way tech stocks had been performing over the last five years? Even during the last major selloff at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, the technology sector held up better than most sectors. However, this year, tech stocks have been anything but strong performers.
It’s not just technology either, all sector leadership has changed considerably over the past twelve months. At the end of the third quarter last year, consumer cyclicals, technology, and financials, ranked first, second, and third in the DALI sector rankings, while utilities, energy, and consumer staples ranked in the bottom three.
Fast forward to the third quarter this year, and energy, consumer staples, and utilities held the top spots, while technology, consumer cyclicals, and financials ranked in the eighth, tenth, and fourth spots.
Looking at the period between September 30, 2021, and September 30, 2022, a hypothetical equal-weighted portfolio consisting of the top sectors in Q3 2021, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) would have lost 20.06%, underperforming the S&P 500 by almost 3.5%.
But an equal-weighted portfolio made up of the top sectors in Q3 2022, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) would have gained 12.58% over the same period, outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 29% and the previous portfolio by 30%.
That hypothetical difference of 30% reflects the cost of assuming that top sectors will remain at the top consistently. If instead, an investor followed a relative strength model and rotated with the market leaders, he or she would have likely been able to avoid those losses.
2022 is also notable as there is a nearly 80% year-to-date differential between the top-performing sector, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), and the bottom-performing sector, the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLC), indicating that there is, even more, to be gained this year by picking the top sector and avoiding the worst.
The change in leadership and the large differential this year provides a useful reminder that long-term sector trends such as technology can change quickly and investors would benefit from the use of relative strength.
Tap into DALI sector rankings and access more investing tools with a 30 day free trial of Nasdaq Dorsey Wright’s Research Platform.
It’s no secret that many active fund managers fail to beat their benchmarks over the long term, but investor trading activity in those funds is even worse. A Morningstar examination of investor returns in the largest active bond funds revealed self-destructive behavior by investors. According to Morningstar, investors in the 20 largest Intermediate Core Plus Bond funds, which have 10-year records, were so bad over the last ten years that they gave up more return than the Bloomberg US Aggregate index delivered. The average fund returned 2.11% annualized for the last ten years ending in August, while the Bloomberg US Aggregate index returned 1.35% return. Surprisingly, every single one of the 20 funds outperformed the index, but investors were not able to take advantage of this outperformance. Investors lost 75% of the average return the funds delivered, ending up with an 0.53% annualized return. Poor timing can account for the dismal returns for investors. Between 2021 and 2022, investors added $91 billion to the category looking for extra yield over the aggregate index. Unfortunately, this coincided with inflation which led to intermediate-term bond prices falling.
Finsum: Investors poured money into active fixed-income funds at the worst possible time, leading to massive underperformance compared to the funds.
Put it this way: research analysts and model portfolios don’t go hand in hand. Meaning, of course, an analyst can’t provide model services, according to cskruti.com. Nope. None. Nada.
"I have been asked this multiple times by the advisers and my answer has always been “NO!”
In other words: zip.
But why, you might ask. Well, no buy/sell recommendation in a specific security exists, the site continued. While advice on a “portfolio of securities” is covered under Investment Advisers Regulations, that’s not the case under research analyst regulations.
Those existing research analysts dispensing model portfolios must alter the product offering and discontinue offering portfolios. What’s more, when it comes to a specific security where clients can determine the action on a specific security, analysts are able to provide buy/sell recommendations.
Further driving home the point, based on the terms of a settlement order passed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India in May, sebi-registered research analysts are unable to offer either the portfolios or advisory services, according to livemont.com.
It’s expected the settlement will have reverberations on the platform Smallcase. It offers investors curated portfolios and was created by research analysts and investment advisors.
by Thomas Forsha, CFA
Is now the time to be adding dividend-paying stocks to your portfolio? With interest rates moving higher, and deflationary pressures subsiding, the key drivers of growth outperformance over the past decade appear to be stalling.
What seems to be a longer-term shift may support value and higher quality dividend-paying companies versus speculative growth companies.
The promise of a dividend check provides an additional dose of certainty for investors. According to Ned Davis Research, dividend-paying stocks in the S&P 500® tend to underperform non-payers in the months leading up to the first-rate increase of a tightening cycle, but in the years after the initial increase dividend payers have outperformed on average by a wide margin. While the past decade has been tough for dividend-focused investors, the best performance for dividend payers has historically been the period that followed the first fed funds rate increase.
Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr/copyright.html.
For vendor disclaimers refer to www. ndr.com/vendorinfo/
With interest rates marching higher and the yield curve steepening, Ned Davis Research points toward the potential for the outperformance of value stocks during a rising rate environment. Will the yield curve steepen over the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve is able to successfully manage a soft landing for the economy, or will tightening prompt a recession causing the yield curve to collapse again? Either outcome is likely to prove favorable for the relative performance of value strategies. And historically, the average value stock tends to enjoy higher dividend income than the average growth stock.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets.
Investing involves risk including possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for a long term, especially during periods of downturns in the market.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The S&P 500 Index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
This does not constitute investment advice or an investment recommendation.
This represents the views and opinions of River Road Asset Management. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security and is subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. The comments should not be construed as a recommendation of individual holdings or market sectors, but as an illustration of broader theme.
Data is from what we believe to be reliable sources, but it cannot be guaranteed. River Road Asset Management assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the data provided by outside sources.
Drop in the, um, bucket list? The performance of a number of model portfolios that leverage the bucket strategy recently was put under a microscope by Christine Benz, Morningstar’s director of personal finance, according to smartasset.com. While the year’s been unkind to the portfolios given their bottom line’s have taken a hit, nevertheless, they’ve outperformed the traditional 60/40 portfolio. That, of course, is an asset allocation retirees commonly use. Further, they’ve outpaced the S&P 500. Through the first six months of 2022, it was down – and by a considerable margin.
The strategy’s a way to spread your assets across different groups of investments that will be tapped at various points.
“[T]he Bucket system has delivered by keeping the faucets open,” Benz wrote. “Retirees using a Bucket system can draw upon their cash reserves without having to disrupt their long-term investments, which have likely experienced price declines so far this year.”
So, is the bucket list holding up in light of the difficulties of the year’s market performance? That would be a resound yes, as it does what it was designed to, according to Morningstar.com.
"True, all of my Model Bucket Portfolios have lost money this year -- and my guess is that most retiree bucketers are seeing red ink for the whole of their portfolios, too,” said Benz. (As of late June, a 60% U.S. equity/40% bond portfolio would be down about 16% for the year to date.)
But the Bucket system has delivered by keeping the faucets open: Retirees using a Bucket system can draw upon their cash reserves without having to disrupt their long-term investments, which have likely experienced price declines so far this year.”