The Apple Car (capital C!) has been hyped all over the internet over the last year, and investors seem to be frothing over the idea. See the full story here on our partner Magnifi's site.
Dear FINSUM readers, we want to gauge your interest in a potential new ETF coming to market in 2021. As many of you will know, thematic tech ETFs have had some of the best returns over the last half decade, and there is a new ETF in the works that appears like it might have found another niche for excellent growth.
The M2M (symbol: MTOM), or machine-to-machine, economy is one where the smart, autonomous, networked and economic independent machines or devices act as the participants, carrying on the necessary activities of production, distribution, and allocation with little to no human intervention. It is often referred to as the fourth stage of the industrial revolution. M2M transforms traditional industries into technology industries. The enabling technologies include five G, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, edge computing, big data, blockchain, quantum computing and, of course, the internet of things.
Please tell us what you think of MTOM in the form of a 30-second survey (2 multiple choice questions).
Tech shares have been doing very well recently. This has given rise to renewed fears of overvaluation and a market correction. In the ten days leading up to December 8th,the Nasdaq 100 jumped 5.3%. While this makes some nervous after a year of huge gains for tech, history tells us this likely means more gains are coming. There have only been 10 times ion history when the Nasdaq 100 went on a ten-day winning streak, and the average gain in the year following was 19%.
FINSUM: The point here is that even if value stocks do well—which they have been as the economic outlook has brightened—tech stocks don’t look bearish by any means.
One of the questions swirling in the back (or front!) of investors’ minds is whether big tech megacaps are overvalued. They have had a stellar run this year and are trading at rich multiples, which has led to fears of overvaluation. On the other hand, they still seem like they might be the best growth play in the market. At the end of September one could argue things had gotten out of hand. FAAMG stocks were trading at 35x earnings while the rest of the S&P 500 was at 12x, the widest gap since 2000. However, since then fortunes have reversed, with the spread now only 31x to 20x.
FINSUM: So the big question is whether the shrinking of the spread means there is margin for FAAMG growth, or it is a part of a larger trend towards valuation parity? We think it depends on the regulatory path that new administration takes.
The anti-trust probe into Google elicited little more than a shrug from markets. Investors seem to think this just Washington saber-rattling. However, what is not well understood is that the probe is not just a risk for Google, but a major one for Apple. Apple is intimately connected to the case the DOJ is trying to form. In particular, Google pays Apple billions of Dollars a year to be the default search engine on iPhone, a fact which the DOJ has centered its case on. That money flows into Apple’s services unit, which has been its biggest growth driver in recent years. According to an analyst from Bernstein “There’s a risk, if you play it out, that there actually could be more financial impact to Apple than there is for Google”.
FINSUM: The market seems to have fundamentally misunderstood the risk here. Google got the headlines, but Apple potentially has even bigger risk.
There are rising fears about the potential over-valuation of big tech megacaps. While they have risen very strongly this year, their P/E ratios are not the only worry. Regulations are also weighing on investors’ minds, especially after the announcement of the anti-trust probe by the DOJ into Google. That has not stopped the stocks from rallying, however. Most investors are betting that the government’s numerous overtures about anti-trust moves (which have come from both sides of the aisle) are merely saber-rattling.
FINSUM: As it concerns large cap value versus big tech stocks, the answer is simple—it seems like time to buy both. Big tech may keep rising, but there is enough fear to keep other large cap stocks rising as we enter a prolonged recovery, as they have been for several weeks.