The CME Group has published a piece about the outlook for FAAMG stocks in the context of the underlying economy. The CME notes that the FAAMG stocks now account for 22% of the total S&P 500, so their influence is skewing investors’ view of the underlying economy. The reality is that the S&P 500 minus those five stocks is a much more accurate—and much bleaker—representation of the economy. CME says that as the reality of a slow recovery starts to play out in the market’s consciousness, there is bound to be a correction in FAAMG stocks.
FINSUM: The law of gravity would seem to dictate that a fall in FAAMG is inevitable, but what is the catalyst for such a move? Their earnings are good as is growth momentum.
Even the most die-hard Apple investor must be feeling a little woozy right now. The company’s market cap just surpassed $2 tn. And guess what—half of that came in the last five months. Yes, the company doubled in value since the start of the pandemic and is now worth $2 tn! A couple months ago many were saying Apple was a bargain, now it seems to have a very significant premium. So the big question for investors—is it time to cash out because things feel very toppy, or do you stick with it? The company’s earnings have been phenomenal. So good in fact that Goldman made a blunt comment about flubbing its forecasts, saying “It turns out that we and consensus weren't even in the ballpark in terms of what was possible.”
FINSUM: $2 tn is a scary number, but it feels like it would be wise to stick with Apple right now. Momentum is good and there does not seem to be a big headwind that would wound the stock.
Large cap tech has been doing great and getting tons of media attention. Within the big rise, though, Apple has seen relatively less attention. The reality is that it may be time to buy. Historical studies have shown that the best time to buy Apple stock is in advance of new iPhone releases, and it is now confirmed that a new iPhone is coming soon. And it is not just any iPhone, it is Apple’s first 5G iPhone, which the company said on a recent earnings call would start shipping in October.
FINSUM: Research has shown that the 90-day period preceding the launch of a new phone is an ideal time to buy. Seems like a good opportunity to consider Apple.
Cloud computing is a red hot area of tech. Amazon’s AWS division gets most of the attention, but the whole sector has grown greatly in total revenue over the last couple of years. Heavy growth is forecast to continue through the early 2020s, but there is an x-factor that may give a big boost to cloud stocks which the market is not pricing. That x-factor is the fact that work-from-home is sending the demand for cloud services much higher than baseline forecasts. With distributed workforces, the need for cloud-based computing is higher than if workers were in offices. For example, Audi’s cloud spend grew 12% in just a month between March and April.
FINSUM: So WFH is a great tailwind for cloud computing. The only challenge is that the costs for companies have been soaring so much that they are trying to renegotiate them back down. Overall, seems a big net positive.
There has been a lot of hype about cloud computing for the last few years. Growth in the sector has been massive, and Amazon Web Services (Amazon’s cloud business) has become a key indicator for investors. A new report out today shows why now might be a good time to invest more in the sector. The report shows that large enterprises are planning to increase their overall spending on cloud product, and by 2021, the cloud will account for 32% of overall tech budgets versus 30% today. More impressively, spending on the cloud by large enterprises is up 59% since 2018 to $74m annually.
FINSUM: A 2% shift in tech spend into the cloud alone is a good driver of business. It is probably a good medium to long-term bet to take a look at a handful of cloud stocks. Check out at Global X's CLOU for a good cloud computing ETF.
For the last week, Microsoft has been in a delicate dance to try to acquire the hugely popular social media app TikTok. President Trump has been adamant that it needs to be bought by US interests or he may ban the app. Last week, Microsoft said it was trying to acquire the company, but then swiftly abandoned the efforts because Trump said he would block the deal. Now, Microsoft says that Satya Nadella and Trump have spoken and gotten on the same page and that the deal is back on. Wedbush thinks the deal could be transformational for Microsoft as it would put them in direct competition with Facebook, Alphabet etc, and give them a huge social media prize while those competitors remain mired in major regulatory scrutiny.
FINSUM: TikTok already has 100 million users in the US. We think if this goes through it could end up being a major boost to Microsoft. Perhaps not unlike Facebook’s acquisition of Instagram.