Eq: Total Market

Short-term dated options are continuing to grow in popularity which many analysts are warning could have unintended consequences for market stability according to a Reuters article by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed.

The fastest growing segment is zero days to expiry (ODTE) options, where traders are looking to profit from small, intraday market moves. Most options are based on indices, popular ETFs, or single stocks. As of March 2022, the daily notional value of all ODTE trades had exceeded $1 trillion.

The contracts are popular among buyers, because small moves in the underlying instrument can result in huge moves for its derivatives. For sellers, the appeal is that the options decay in value and the trade can be closed at the end of the day. 

However, many warn that large positions in these options could set off a ‘squeeze’ in the event of an unexpected, intraday move. This would cause option sellers to take large losses and potentially force hedging which could exacerbate the move in the underlying instruments. According to JPMorgan, it would be a similar dynamic to the ‘Volmageddon’ crash of 2018 when many inverse volatility products crashed due to a large spike in the VIX.


Finsum: A new threat to market stability is the rise of ODTE options which are becoming very popular with retail and institutional traders. However, they do have the potential to exacerbate large, intraday market moves. 

 

Last year, active was the operative word, as passive management stared into the taillights of fixed income active managers, according to bsdinvesting.com.

In the midst of the Fed’s policy change and a rejuiced market, active management improved markedly in the second half of the year. Over the last two quarters, an average of 60% of active managers outdid passive management.

Meantime, in January, while Vanguard noted that additional volatility appeared to be in the cards this year, for active management, it foresaw a bigger opportunity for it to strut its stuff.

The decisions of active sector and security selection should carry a bigger stick in a market holding its own against macroeconomic forces or taking a back seat to central banks.

Across most segments, appealing yields are attainable, including some of the best value in higher quality bonds. Even in the face of watered down economic conditions, it should hold its own.

 

Hey, naysayers – and don’t pretend you’re not paying attention -- on the heels of negative returns last year, in 2023, potentially, fixed income asset classes will come up with an improved total return performance, according to etftrends.com

In October and November, as risk markets hit the comeback trail in conjunction with indications that inflation was receding, positive momentum found its mojo. Those strides opened the gates for investors to sniff outside of interest rates that hit nosebleed levels -- even though market volatility probably isn’t headed for the door. That’s because the U.S. economy continues to pose challenges.

Given the Fed took actions that seduced rate hikes during 2022, U.S. Treasuries have up ticked big time. Consequently, the site stated, investors should contemplate a greater allocation of assets to the asset class.

Meantime, through passive investment strategies, investors still will be exposed to broad market beta, a trifecta these days of burgeoning inflation and interest rates along with greater dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions is the motherlode for skilled active management, according t0 wellington.com.

 

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