Eq: Total Market

(New York)

Investors may have gotten excited on Friday. Accommodative language from the Fed has a way of doing that. However, there is no reason to get to exhilarated, as this rally doesn’t seem to have legs. One of the big worries is about the largest group of shareholders in the country—Baby Boomers. Because this generation is retiring, they are likely to sell into any rally as they don’t have time left to wait for a big recovery. Accordingly, any rally will likely lose momentum quickly. As evidence, redemptions over the last four weeks have totaled $164 bn, or more than 1% of money in all stock and bond funds.


FINSUM: This is an interesting argument and one we tend to take seriously given the size of the Baby Boomer population and their large shareholdings. That said, we do not think it is large enough to affect the fundamentals of the market, just alter the amplitude.

(New York)

Retail stocks are in a tenuous position. They thrived to begin 2018, and for three quarters rolled to solid gains. Then in the fourth quarter they got rocked despite the fact that they had been gaining momentum from healthier consumer spending and a stronger than expected holiday shopping season. So what to do? Jefferies says it is time to buy the dip, based on the fact that “The consumer is strong, Amazon isn’t killing retail, the Federal Reserve is more dovish, oil down, first-half weather compares easy, free cash flow piling up, margins are moving up and consumer discretionary stocks are cheap on absolute and relative basis”. Check out these names: Gap, American Eagle Outfitters, Five Below, Foot Locker, Kohl’s, Urban Outfitters, Under Armour, Tapestry, and Lululemon Athletica.


FINSUM: Our view is that at some point soon (has it already happened?), ecommerce and brick and mortar are going to fall into equilibrium. When that happens, it will be good for traditional retailing stocks.

(New York)

One of the most well-known finance professors in the nation, Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, says that the market looks sets for a great stretch. The catch is in order for that great run to happen, we need to avoid a recession. According to Professor Siegel, “My feeling is that the market is virtually positioned for a mild recession, but I just don’t think that it’s going to happen … If we avoid a recession, we’re going to have a really good market”. He continued “I think we swung too positive last summer and now I think we’ve swung too negative”. Siegel believes that if a recession does hit, the market is in for another 5-10% fall.


FINSUM: We would have to agree. This selloff, which has corresponded with great earnings in 2018, is basically a recession already being priced in (maybe not quite), so if the recession never comes, at some point there is going to be an “all clear” rally.

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