Eq: Total Market
ETFs have been a fee destroyer since their inception, and advisors/companies have been forced to either play along or bleed AUM. However, direct/custom is putting the power back in in the hands of the advisors. BlackRock, Vanguard, and Morgan Stanley are all buying their way into the direct indexing craze. Direct Indexing is giving investors and advisors the best of both active and passive investing worlds. While stock picking might not have the best record, starting from a base index and then stripping or adding based on preference could give investors. Custom Indexing can be for a preference for/or against a stock but more importantly it gives investors the reins when it comes to their tax burdens.
FINSUM: Direct Indexing is the goldilocks solution to the low fee/advisor specialty conundrum, and will be the dominant trend in investing over the next decade.
Markets were flummoxed early this week with the growing Omicron Covid-19 variant spreading rapidly in pockets globally. Despite these growing concerns and a seemingly endless pandemic, the JPMorgan is calling for a big 2022. With one of the absolute highest predictions on wall street JPMorgan is calling for a 5050 S&P 500 to end 2022. Easing supply chains, earrings growth and a more stable China are the key parts of their prediction for a successful equity market in 2022. Even if investors overweight China in their portfolios, the biggest threat will be domestically. A hawkish turn by the Fed would be detrimental to their prediction and is still the largest sort of risk in JPMorgans eyes.
FINSUM: Powell is talking tapering and rate rises just as Omicron is spreading which could be the perfect storm for a bad Q1 in 2022.
High levels of unemployment continue to plague the labor market despite available jobs...See More
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President Biden renominated Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Monday this week in perhaps the purest bi-partisan reaction from the President since he entered office. The news was celebrated on wall street as both the bond and equity markets felt the reprieve. Additionally, Republicans on the senate banking committee rejoiced at the pick given Powell’s historical ties to the republican party. Powell was assumed to be in a close contest for the Fed position with Lael Brainard, but ultimately continuity was valued moving into the next phase of the post-covid recession. Still Powell’s road is difficult moving forward given sluggish employment and growth, and rising inflationary pressures.
FINSUM: This was a wise decision by Biden politically, and markets trust Powell to be dovish even as a republican which is the best of both worlds for the economy.
In their latest strategy release Morgan Stanley is pulling no punches about its projections for 2022, warning investors to unload and underweight U.S. Stocks, Bonds and Treasuries. They see tightening monetary policy, high inflation, and higher valuations all scaring them from a more bullish U.S. stance. They see the S&P dropping to almost 6% below its current levels. In order to find the gains they need they suggest investors look to Euro-area and Japanese companies, where they are bullish on equity prices. They also see commodities providing some portfolio relief. However, Morgan Stanley’s economists aren’t predicting a rate rise until 2023, and they see the Fed being more dovish than the broader market expects.
FINSUM: Conflicting messages inside Morgan Stanley. If Monetary Policy doesn’t over tighten then don’t expect a sluggish year in the U.S.
The best portfolios stand strong when the markets don't. See More