Politics

(Washington)

After the “trade truce” at the G20 it was looking more like the US and China may get a trade deal done soon. However, news out recently says otherwise, as China has not boosted its purchases of US agricultural products. Such a move was a key tenet of the agreement Trump apparently struck with Xi at the G20, but Beijing has not followed through on the promise. Trump complained publicly about this yesterday, but China denies they ever made such an agreement.


FINSUM: This seems small and petty but it is precisely not the direction that one would like these talks to be headed in.

(Washington)

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 was preceded by a nice run-up in markets, and the same thing seems to be happening right now. The market’s continued rise appears to point to an underlying confidence in the economy, and the more it goes up, the more out-of-touch Democrats’ negative attacks on the US economy and society may seem to voters. “The markets are starting to embrace the idea that Trump wins reelection. Most of the people in the markets don’t like him personally, but they like his policies”, said a veteran fund manager at AGF investments.


FINSUM: We have to agree with the assessment that a continued rise in the economy and markets would not be favorable to Democrats’ chances.

(Washington)

In what comes as a potentially very good sign, the Treasury Department announced yesterday that a trade deal with China was close to becoming a reality. Steve Mnuchin, head of the Treasury, said that a deal with China was “90% of the way there”. On a slightly less positive note, he continued “The message we want to hear is that they want to come back to the table and continue because I think there is a good outcome for their economy and the U.S. economy to get balanced trade and to continue to build on this relationship”. Trump will meet Xi at the G20 gathering this weekend.


FINSUM: Mnuchin is not particularly given to exaggeration, so we take this 90% number as pretty meaningful. The downside is that the Chinese aren’t at the negotiating table right now.

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