Politics

(New York)

When and if the US-China trade deal finally happens, make sure to sell. At least that is what Bloomberg is arguing. In a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the news, Bloomberg thinks the completion of a deal should be a sell trigger. The trade situation itself is shaping up as a lose-lose for investors. Either it will be a symbolic-only deal that is short on details and does little to actually resolve tension, or Trump may walk away from the table with no deal (like with North Korea). In either situation, it is hard to see the market celebrating.


FINSUM: We tend to agree with this view. The way this is shaping up, it does not seem like there is going to be some grandiose trade accord that solves everyone’s issues.

(Washington)

Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, is set to hold his first and only public hearing on Thursday, when he will testify in front of the House about his dealings with President Trump. Cohen is reportedly going to directly accuse Trump of criminal activity in addition to testimony regarding “lies, racism, and cheating”. He will not be speaking about Russia matters under the purview of the Mueller investigation. The White House commented that “Sadly, he will go before Congress this week and we can expect more of the same … It’s laughable that anyone would take a convicted liar like Cohen at his word, and pathetic to see him given yet another opportunity to spread his lies”.


FINSUM: This is either going to be a media firestorm or a dud. If Cohen doesn’t say anything new, it will be hard for the media to make much of it.

(New York)

Next week is going to be a media circus, as the odds of real Trump fireworks look likely to surge. The reason why is that Michael Cohen is going to testify at an open public hearing before the House Oversight Committee next Thursday. The committee, seemingly defending its actions, commented that “Congress has an obligation under the Constitution to conduct independent and robust oversight of the Executive Branch, and this hearing is one step in that process”. The questions Cohen will answer will concern hush money payments, potential Trump conflicts of interest etc, but will not touch on Mueller’s probe into Russian interference.


FINSUM: No matter how you feel about Cohen, or whether you think this is just political theatre, the odds of a media bombshell, true or not, seem high.

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