Politics

(Washington)

The 2020 presidential election is still about a year and half away, yet a large number of investors have already made changes to their portfolios based on potential outcomes. Some 40% of investors say they have adjusted their portfolios because of the upcoming election, according to a recent survey. The reality is that investors are worried about a Democratic sweep of the presidency, House, and Senate, which could mean a serious rollback of Trump-era policies, including tax cuts. “If Biden continues to poll this well into the beginning of next year ahead of the primaries, he is gonna start to have some negative effect on the market”, says Tony Roth of Wilmington Trust.


FINSUM: We can’t help but agree with that last assessment. That said, we think negative effects will be slow and steady, not sharp moves.

(Washington)

President Trump followed through on his threats today, hiking tariffs on China to 25% across $200 bn worth of goods. The move came as US and Chinese negotiators have not been making much progress in talks. Beijing has vowed to retaliate, but the talks between the two nations are continuing. Trump reinforced that there was no need to rush on a deal. Stocks opened lower on the news.


FINSUM: This certainly does not seem like good news and we are starting to think it may be some time before a real deal happens, which means the issue may continue to loom over the market.

(New York)

A new poll of professional money managers has just been released, and the study shows that they think Trump is going to win in 2020. Amazingly, 67% of professional money managers say Trump will win the election versus just 28% who believe the Democratic candidate will win. What is eye-opening is that many polls outside the financial industry show the Democrats leading. Managers also scored the performance of Trump and the two chambers of Congress. Trump got the best grades of the three, but none of the scores were high.


FINSUM: This does not surprise us. All our business, both as it concerns publishing and advertising, is with professional money managers, and the one thing we know for sure is that the president has a very strong following in this community.

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