Eq: Large Cap

Few probably are pounding away for a repeat performance of the bond markets in the first half of the year. But an upbeat perspective among investors is warranted, according to corporate.vanguard.com. And, why, pre tell, is that? Bonds are on the precipice to dispense a spike in real income and restart their role of diversifying portfolios.

Even so, however, the road ahead is sprinkled with a plethora uncertainties and variables. The upshot: among other things, for another season, inflation seems bound to remain abnormally high.

At the same time, unlike the recent past, corporates, municipals, high yield, and emerging markets pose plenty of chances for growth.

Bloomberg Barclay’s US Aggregate Bond Index plunged 8.8% since January, according to fidelity.com. That was its steepest drop off in 40 years. What’s up? Investor trepidations over rising interest rates and the fear it could put a dent in the price tag on bonds. That usually translates into a drop in bond prices and rising bond yields.

However, it also could be where opportunity knocks. The Fed’s plan to revert rates to “more historically normal levels” could tee up a chance in bonds for may of those with an eye on income, principle protection and diversification in the second half of the year and more.


While a far cry from the size and scope Dems were originally hoping for Biden’s multi-agenda bill will hit his desk after passing the house, but what does this mean for the market and the U.S. economy? The bill is $430 billion dollars and will change taxes, healthcare, and climate policy. The plan hopes to slash carbon emissions by 40% within the decade spending a hefty $369 billion. However, it plans to generate $737 billion through tax changes and will have a net impact of $300 billion in deficit reduction according to the CBO. For the market, the stock buyback provision will be critical, but congress says it will generate $74 billion on its own. Still, this has been a key avenue for corporate spending in the last decade and Wallstreet will claim it forces inefficient maneuvers by corporations. The inflation reduction act will only make a very small impact on inflation over the next decade according to experts.

Finsum: Equity buyback taxes are very dumb, distorting how companies effectively spend money with excess revenue will only hurt the economy and the companies.

Equities have rallied, inflation is falling in the month of July, and global gas prices seem to be easing; investors can shake off the volatility concerns, right? Not just yet. Volatility experts Paul Britton founder of Capstone Investment Advisors told the FT that we aren’t through the weeds just yet as the corporate debt crisis looms at the end of 2022. Britton says there is a significant repricing as companies might struggle to pay off high corporate debt with rising interest rates. Capstone looks to profit on increasing volatility as they are a considerable hedge fund, but the VIX is still falling below its long-run moving average for the first time in four months. Fed experts like Mary Daly, president of the SF Fed branch, say the inflation battle hasn’t been won yet, signaling more rate hikes may be needed to bury inflation.

Finsum: Failing to consider the fact that inflation favors borrowers, real borrowing costs on corporate debt have decreased considerably.

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