Eq: Large Cap

The overall bond market is almost a bust this year but investors flocking for a yield can only go to one place, junk bonds. Lending conditions are very loose with all the accommodations both fiscal and monetary policy made this year, and those attempting to stream any income have to learn to high-yield debt. Inflation is eating up anything to be gained in treasuries. Investors are now treating high yield debt like a more liquid asset than ever purely because traditional bonds are losing to inflation. All of the policy measures have made many feel corporate debt is less risky than ever but the excess demand may be tipping, as even some of the riskiest debt is being sought after. Still high nominal economic growth is good for borrowers and reduces to investors.


FINSUM: Investors should be aware of interest rates pass-through from Fed tightening to corporate debt, strong inflation could lead to weaker pass through and even lower spreads than the market is already seeing.

(New York)

Wall Street is about to start posting 3rd quarter earnings and market participants are expecting another big round of postings. Driving most of those earnings is robust growth in the overall economy, which drove the same blockbuster Q2 reports. Some of the highest expectations are in the banking sector as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., PNC Financial Services Group Inc., and U.S. Bancorp are looking to lead the pack. This is driven by micro factors in their companies but also macro factors that benefit financials as interest rates look to rise and the Fed begins tapering. Outside financials, large caps like UnitedHealth Group Inc. are also looking to post very high earnings with solid financials and its valuable brand Optum is driving earnings. The delta variant may have hamstrung some companies from the great Q2, but large-cap companies could be robust enough to withstand the covid resurgence.


FINSUM: Additionally, look to energy companies to post solid Q3 numbers as high prices helped bottom lines for these large-cap juggernauts.

(New York)

Some of the biggest names on Wall Street have been calling for a correction recently. Morgan Stanley is chief among them. The bank’s chief equity strategist, Mike Wilson, says he thinks there will be a 10% correction in the near term. According to Wilson—who predicted the last two market sell-offs—we are in a mid-cycle transition phase of a market cycle, which is an environment where equities getting very choppy.


FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense, but feels a little too bearish for us. If earnings can hold up, and inflation continues to moderate, we don’t think a full correction will occur. Flat and/or choppy, fair, but not a full 10% fall from here.

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