Eq: Large Cap

Pick your favorite recession signal and there is a chance it's flashing the warning signs. Most are eyeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve which inverted in early April. Investors worried about the recession should turn to high-yield bonds, but specifically, those ‘sin’ goods are the best remedy for the recession. Alcohol and Tobacco are two of the best performing industries in the 12-months leading to a recession and the years after. Food and beverage, utilities, and healthcare all are great performers as well. The high yield bonds to avoid are telecommunications and retail shopping, as their returns can vary drastically.

Finsum: Junk bond yields are relatively high right now and less sensitive to Fed moves, high yield bonds are a potentially good alternative right now.

Annuities are one of the safest financial securities that exist, but that doesn't mean they are without some risk. Sure one of the biggest risks to an annuity is dying early, but there are other external risks like liquidity. Annuities are among the most illiquid contracts and often come with heavy penalty fees in withdrawals. Additionally, if an annuity company goes bankrupt they aren’t regulated by FINRA, and state and local insurance agencies only cover between $250,000-500,000 in losses. In the current environment, inflation growth is a substantial risk to annuities because it devalues the future payment stream in a fixed rate annuity, and even if the Fed raises rates to curb inflation this will only make it a less attractive yield in comparison to the market.

Finsum: Overall, annuities look like one of the safest securities and variable rate annuities may mitigate interest rate risk.

Quantitative easing was the process of flooding the market with money in exchange for buying up long-term government debt and MBS; quantitative tightening was coined by Citigroup in order to describe the unwinding of this process. Goldman Sachs says this is causing increased volatility and sapping liquidity out of the treasury market. This QT could come with an abundance of arbitrage opportunities particularly in U.S. interest rate markets. Additionally, Goldman says QT will widen the gaps in new and old securities and narrow treasury yields and swap rates. F

INSUM: The treasury market is ripe for turmoil with the upcoming rate hike in March.

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