Eq: Large Cap

(New York)

There are a lot of anniversaries to pay attention to this month, not least of which is the 10-year anniversary of the Financial Crisis. This has unsurprisingly sparked a whole wave of articles portending the next crisis. However, another kind of anniversary might be even more troublesome—that stocks are now higher priced than in the dotcom era. While the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is still not quite as high as then, rich valuations are more pervasive now, and price to sales valuations are higher, according to one market analyst. Actually, price to sales is the more worrying metric as stocks in the S&P 500 are now trading at 2.7x revenue versus just 1.2x in 2000.

FINSUM: Stocks are very richly valued right now, that is certain. However, that does not, in itself, portend any immediate problem for the market.

(New York)

JP Morgan just published what could be the most well-documented financial crisis forecast ever written. The bank’s quant team put out a 143-age report chronicling how the next crisis will unfold which features the opinions of almost 50 of Wall Street’s top analysts and strategists. The consensus is that there will be a major “liquidity crisis” with huge selloffs in major asset classes, and no one to step in to buy. The losses will be exacerbated by the shift to passive management and the rise of algorithmic trading. JP Morgan says that the Fed and other central banks may even need to directly buy stocks, and there could even be negative income taxes. The bank thinks the crisis will hit sometime after the first half of 2019, most likely in 2020.

FINSUM: Assessing the validity of these kinds of predictions is always hard. While we have no idea about the timing, or whether this will actually happen, the argument is well thought out and quite logical.

(New York)

The Fed seems almost certain to hike later this month, as well as in December. Rates heading higher looks like a certainty. So what does that mean for high yielding equity sectors which many Americans rely on for dividend income? The answer is a mixed picture. Pure rate-driven sectors like utilities, real estate, and telecoms will likely be hurt, but high-yielders like healthcare and and consumer staples should hold up better because their businesses can generate a lot of cash that can be returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

FINSUM: Pharma has returned over 12% this year while real estate is just around 2%, showing how the former can outperform in rising rate environments.

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