
FINSUM
Private Credit Coming to DC Plans Near You
Empower, the $1.8 trillion 401(k) plan provider, will begin offering private credit, equity, and real estate investments in some retirement accounts later this year through partnerships with firms like Apollo and Partners Group.
This move marks the largest entry yet of private assets into 401(k)-type plans, a $12.4 trillion market that Wall Street firms have long sought access to. While proponents argue private assets can enhance returns and reduce volatility, challenges remain—such as illiquidity, valuation complexity, and higher fees, which range from 1% to 1.6% versus the 0.28% average for typical target-date funds.
Only select managed account services will offer these investments, with five employers already signed up to participate in the initial rollout. Allocations could range from 5% to 20% of a portfolio, depending on factors like age and risk tolerance.
Finsum: Private markets have definitely gone wide in the last decade but this sort of expansion could really help retirees.
US Debt Downgraded: Are Investors Properly Accounting for Risk
After Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, investors sold off government bonds, driving long-term Treasury yields sharply higher. This spike in yields raises borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike, potentially slowing economic growth.
Analysts warned that higher rates could ripple across mortgages, auto loans, and business financing, putting pressure on spending and investment. While credit downgrades by S&P and Fitch in past years had limited long-term economic impact, the timing of Moody’s move—amid heightened bond market volatility and mounting national debt—has amplified market anxiety.
Some experts view the downgrade as a long-anticipated but symbolically important warning about unsustainable fiscal trends. Still, markets showed resilience, with equities rebounding by midday and Treasury yields pulling back slightly from their highs.
Finsum: Are equities investors neglecting the proper risk to US debt right now? Investors should keep close tabs on how this evolves
Jamie Dimon Warns of the Dangers of Stagflation
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that inflation risks remain elevated and markets are too complacent, despite the recent tariff pause between the U.S. and China. Speaking at JPMorgan’s investor day, he emphasized the potential for stagflation—sluggish growth, high unemployment, and persistent inflation—as more likely than many assume.
While markets rallied on the news of tariff reductions, Dimon noted that the economic impact of still-high duties has yet to fully hit.
JPMorgan lowered its recession odds for 2025 to 50%, but warned that unresolved trade tensions could reignite instability. Experts echoed that the current tariff rollback is temporary, and the underlying threat of renewed trade conflict looms.
Finsum: Dimon’s remarks suggest investors are underestimating long-term risks, particularly if inflationary pressures persist amid constrained economic growth.
Three Large Cap Funds to Monitor
Large-cap growth funds have recently delivered strong returns, with an average gain of 16.77% over the past year and standout performances from Fidelity, Vanguard, and Loomis Sayles offerings.
Fidelity Advisor New Insights and Contrafund, managed by veteran Will Danoff, ranked among the top five funds, with returns exceeding 18% annually over the past five years. Loomis Sayles Growth Fund posted the highest three- and five-year gains, driven by a disciplined process and long-term investment strategy.
Vanguard’s Growth Index and Mega Cap Growth Index funds also performed well, offering low-cost, passive exposure to top-performing large-cap growth stocks. Despite their success, these funds come with risks like high concentration in mega-cap stocks and share class accessibility issues for individual investors.
Finsum: As interest rates remain high that could provide a relative advantage to large caps over small caps.
Private Credit Faces New Risks
Private credit managers often tout their locked-up capital as a key strength, insulating them from the kind of liquidity runs that plagued banks like Silicon Valley Bank. However, the rise of evergreen vehicles—funds allowing periodic redemptions—has introduced new vulnerabilities, especially as firms like Blackstone and Apollo have raised nearly $300 billion from retail investors.
While evergreen funds offer some liquidity and mass appeal, especially through wealth advisors, their structure forces managers to continuously invest and meet redemptions, reducing the strategic flexibility that once defined private credit’s advantage.
This could erode returns, particularly if managers are pressured to lend during inopportune times or sell illiquid assets at discounts to meet withdrawals. Though redemptions are capped and many investments naturally mature over time, a crisis could still lead to redemption surges that slow new lending and strain fund performance.
Finsum: As evergreens attract less experienced investors and chase more capital, the sector risks undermining its own resilience unless managers remain disciplined and transparent.