Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
US stocks have simply blown away the world this year. The S&P 500 is up around 9% while global shares are down 6%. The outperformance has been driven by a supportive tax policy, great economic performance, and a pro-business attitude out of the White House. However, JP Morgan says that the outperformance of US stocks relative to the globe is set to stop. US stocks and global ones will move towards parity in coming quarters as the stimuli helping American shares wanes. The parity will not come from global stocks catching up as much as the US will stagnate or fall.
FINSUM: When we take everything into account right now, we are feeling increasingly positive about the the next year. We think Democrats winning the House would be favorable for shares as it would calm money managers’ worries about some of the GOPs more extreme positions (e.g. trade war). This could bring on a “goldilocks” scenario, where the economic and political conditions are just right for stocks to move strongly higher.
(New York)
Consumer confidence in the United States is at an 18-year high. The last time Americans registered a feeling of confidence this high was in September 2000. However, that could be a big problem for the stock market. Consumer confidence can prove a counter-indicator. The highest ever reading for the measure was recorded in May 2000, just before the Dotcom crash. Small business confidence is even higher, running at a 45-year peak. According to one analyst, “[To] any market historian, that does not guarantee a low-risk market, or another big bull market leg on the horizon”.
FINSUM: These kind of ultra-high measures do worry us as we feel healthy gains come in periods of reasonable concern, not euphoria.
(New York)
The very public grudge match between JP Morgan and President Trump appears to be continuing, albeit in a more subtle way this week. Strategists at JP Morgan went on the record saying that one of the biggest risks to the market right now is that Trump overestimates the US economy and makes a major miscalculation in his trade war with China. The big worry is that Trump takes the trade war too far and sends China into a recession, which would then reverberate and cause a global reversal, shocking markets.
FINSUM: China experiencing a significant downturn could cause a chain reaction amongst EM and developed economies which could come back to sting the whole western world.
More...
(New York)
Many investors may be looking for the best possible combination of high dividend yield and stability. Many companies with very high yields are not stable, so there is often a tradeoff between the two. With that in mind, here are three dividend stocks whose payouts should be reliable for decades to come. The first is a smaller REIT called CareTrust (4.6% yield), which is focused on growing its real estate footprint to handle the US’ aging population. Nike (1%) is another option. The dividend yield is not high, but it is hard to think of a more reliable payer. Finally, there is Canadian space stock, Maxar, which is growing strongly and offers a great dividend yield (considering how small and young it is) of 3.3%.
FINSUM: This is a serious mix of options from three entirely different sectors. Definitely some interesting choices to look into.
(Atlanta)
The airline market has not been doing very well this year. Fuel prices and expanding capacity have weighed on the stocks. United is up big, but the rest of the pack is either in the red or up single digit percentages. Recently, there has been clear winners and losers, with United Continental, Delta, and Spirit being outperformers, and American, Alaska, and Southwest being laggards.
FINSUM: Airlines are an interesting sector, as each has its own unique characteristics, but they are all subject to similar woes. American Airlines has been a big loser this year, but some analysts think it could be the biggest gainer in the medium term.
(Portland)
Nike’s stock has been cruising this year, easily outpacing the broader market thanks to good earnings, new products, and the continued strength of “athleisure”. Shares are up 35% this year, and now it looks like they might head much higher as today’s earnings release is expected to be very strong. Many analysts are boosting their target prices, especially because gross margins look likely to expand on the back of less discounting and a shift towards the higher-margin direct-to-consumer business.
FINSUM: About a year ago, when Nike was going through a rough patch and losing market share, we thought investors should stick around. That has paid off.