Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
While the stock market is getting all of the attention, the bond market is experiencing a lot of turbulence as well. The riskiest corners of the debt market, including junk bonds and loans, are on pace for their worst month since the US downgrade in August 2011. High yield’s spread to Treasuries has surged a whopping 110 basis points since the start of the month, and unlike in stocks, there aren’t signs of a rebound. The average yield on the index is 8%.
FINSUM: It is reasonable to be nervous about credit right now given the huge volume of issuance in recent years and the pending threat of a recession and accompanying earnings slowdown.
(New York)
2018 was a tough year for most income investors. Rates rose considerably, making the dividend yield of the market look rather poor compared to many other short-term assets. Strong corporate dividend hikes helped, but the big question is what will happen in 2019. Most analysts think the pace of dividend hikes will slow, but so will the pace of rate hikes, meaning that income stocks seem likely to do well. Dividends rose 9% this year and are expected to rise 6% in 2019.
FINSUM: Goldman says that financial firms will raise their dividends by 16% in 2019, more than any other sector. Perhaps that is a good place to look.
(New York)
In many ways credit markets are a major bellwether for both the economy and the stock market. And right now, they are sending some poor signals. Investors are afraid of rate hikes and money managers are refusing to bankroll buyouts. As a gauge to how brutal the environment is, consider this: not one company has borrowed in the US high yield market this month! A strategist from Janney Montgomery Scott put the current market environment in perspective: “This is clearly more than year-end jitters … What we’re seeing now is pretty typical for end-of-credit-cycle behaviour”. Yields on junk bonds have climbed over 100 basis points since mid-September.
FINSUM: Junk bonds are likely feeling more heat from the worries about a recession and weakening of earnings (in light of high indebtedness) than they are interest rates.
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(New York)
How to protect against the next recession? This is a difficult question. Since it may be rate induced, it will be hard to hide out in Treasuries, and gold has not inspired much confidence. Well, SkyBridge Capital thinks the big money maker is to short high yields. “Our largest short position right now is in high yield, and it’s not because we think we’re going to make money this year or next year … It’s to protect against the eventual recession or [a] surprise recession”, says a portfolio manager there. “If you’re looking to put on [a] relative cheap short position, it’s hard to figure out how you lose money given how tight spreads are”.
FINSUM: High yield has seen a big expansion of credit and a decline in quality, and when the next recession rolls around there are going to be some big losses.
(New York)
It might not always feel like it, but rising rates are good if you are an income investor. Rates are most definitely rising. Treasury yields are up strongly and the Fed is hiking quarterly. That can cause some rate driven losses even as yields on fixed income assets rise. One fund manager summarized the risks and benefits this way, saying “Rising rates and/or lower equity valuations should lead to higher long-term expected returns, although the movement from low yields to high yields, or high valuations to low valuations, often requires a painful short-term capital loss”.
FINSUM: The move to “low valuations” sounds terrifying as an investor, but the key is to take advantage of higher yields while holding hedged positions.
(New York)
As analysts and the market try to sort out how the new division in Congress will play out in markets, one beneficiary is becoming increasingly clear. Aerospace analyst Ron Epstein of Merrill Lynch had this to say the day before last week’s election, “The change to Democratic control of the House is the best scenario for defense spending. It points to upside in the defense budget. Gridlock keeps budgets intact, and defense is a bipartisan issue”. That argument is a bedrock of the new view that defense stocks are likely going to surge in the new Congressional environment. Epstein points out that aerospace companies are simultaneously seeing commercial and defense businesses growing strongly.
FINSUM: Earnings seem like they will stay in very good shape for the defense sector, and because budget changes look unlikely, the whole industry seems to be in for smooth sailing.