(New York)

Advisors who are receiving inbound interest from clients about annuities might be interested in browsing a list of top recent providers. AIG, John Hancock, Lincoln Financial Group, Pacific Life, and Prudential regularly figure among the top players in the space. That said, data from 2019 has highlighted a new leader of the back—Jackson. “Jackson has dominated the variable annuity market for the past 7 years. In 2019, Jackson diversified its annuity sales to focus on growing its fixed annuity market share, which propelled its overall growth in 2019”, according to an annuities strategist.

FINSUM: One thing that is interesting is that the annuities industry is actually getting a little less consolidated (which stands in contrast to other product sectors, e.g. ETFs). The top three providers only account for 22% market share, down from 25% in 2014.

(New York)

New York is the epicenter of the US coronavirus crisis, and the hit it is taking to its finances may be an example of the risk that the muni bond market is facing all across the country. Government revenue is taking a huge cut at the same time as expenditure to support the economy and its people is jumping. While the threat of a downgrade from its AA perch is only moderate, New York does have several other muni issuers that are looking much more dangerous. For example, the Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) and the Transitional Finance Authority (TFA). The MTA, which runs the subway and other forms of public transportation, has taken a massive revenue hit during the lockdown, with ridership down 90%.

FINSUM: Certain muni credits are gong to be devastated. For instance, even though the MTA is getting $4 bn from the recent CARES act, it is still yielding 5% versus the 2% it yielded before the Covid eruption.

(Brussels)

Even though cases and deaths are still rising rapidly across the European continent, many governments within the EU are planning their re-opening from the Covid lockdown. Spain, Italy, Austria, and more are undertaking and/or announcing plans to reopen as soon as this coming Monday. The rollouts don’t look likely to be rapid anywhere, but their announcement may be received as an important turning point both socially and economically.

FINSUM: Markets are up big today and this is a significant part of it. Might the US start to re-open in a 2-3 weeks (?)—that is the question on investors’ minds.

(New York)

Yes, you read that right, Bank of America is forecasting a 35%+ GDP fall for the YEAR, not just Q2. The bank thinks the Coronavirus downturn is so bad that the US economy will shrink 7% in Q1, 30% in Q2, and 1% in Q3, a cumulative 35.55% for the year. The downturn would be the worst to ever strike the US.

FINSUM: This is by far the bleakest projection we have seen. Goldman, for instance, sees 19% growth in Q3. So if the economy shrinks 35% this year, what is fair market value for the S&P 500?

(New York)

Goldman Sachs, who has been a leader in putting out new research n the economic effects of the current lockdown, has issued new guidance on this week’s pending jobless claims. The bank thinks jobless claims will increase to a whopping 6m this week. If that happens, it would mean this week’s figure would exceed the record that stood until last week by a whopping 9x. The coming release will cover the week from March 22-28th. “Jobless claims will be the timeliest hard data point for assessing the depth of the recession and catching the start of the recovery”, says Goldman.

FINSUM: The period the release covers is not even likely to be the worst. There is probably still a few weeks before the full scale of the layoffs becomes apparent and the numbers peak.

(New York)

Fixed index annuities, like other annuities, have developed somewhat of a bad reputation for poor sales practices over the years. Many agents sell fixed index annuities by saying things like “7% annual gains, no downside”, which in reality is a gross misrepresentation of how income riders work. So why should one buy annuities, and how in turn should they be sold responsibly? The reality is that fixed index annuities are best bought for what they guarantee, not what they might offer. That means CD-like returns with full principal protection. Any upside gains are a bonus, but should not be the core reason for buying the annuity, or the principal way they are pitched.

FINSUM: This will obviously be second nature to those experienced with annuities, but there are plenty of advisors whose clients are starting to ask them about the product (given the environment), so this is just a reminder for those dealing with unfamiliar inbound requests.

(Houston)

The sole bright spot in markets today is the big jump in oil prices. US oil rose about 10% earlier today on an announcement by President Trump that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia was close. The two parties have ben locked in a price war, which alongside the virus, has conspired to bring oil into the teens from a high of around $63 per barrel in January. Trump says a deal could happen within a “few days”.

FINSUM: Oil hit an 18-year low this week. In our opinion it is only a matter of time until oil producers come to an agreement to try to fix prices higher.

(New York)

Citibank is pitching a convincing and optimistic view of the economy, and it is a refreshing take in an otherwise bleak landscape. The bank says the big influx of tests that will become available may allow the economy to open much sooner than planned. Their argument is that the growth in tests will allow 60% of working-age US individuals to be tested by the end of April, and 95% by the end of May. As workers are tested, they can head back to work, quickly re-opening the economy. Accordingly, by the end of this month 90 million Americans may be back at work. “While potential therapeutic strategies for COVID-19 seize headlines, we believe diagnostics rather than therapeutics are far better positioned to materially change the economic and even medical outlook for the current COVID-19 pandemic”, says Citi.

FINSUM: Honestly, this sounds like more of a plan than a forecast, but it is a very good one, and does lend some useful optimism.

(New York)

The term “hybrid annuity” gets thrown around in casual conversation all the time, unfortunately including in sales pitches to clients. However, one would be better off calling it what it is—a fixed index annuity. “Hybrid annuity” gives a false sense of the product, lending the impression that there is full principal protection AND unlimited upside. The reality, of course is that while principal protection full exists, there is quite limited upside that is constrained by the annuity contract.

FINSUM: A contractually limited 4% max annual upside via an option contract on an index is not unlimited upside.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs issued a bleak revision of its earlier estimate for the looming second quarter recession. When the pandemic first struck, Goldman called for a 9% decline. It then proceeded to increase that forecast to 20% as the lockdowns began. Now it has reissued guidance, calling for a 34% decline in GDP and a rise in the unemployment rate to 15%.

FINSUM: This is a profound forecast and speaks to the scale of the pending downturn. The good thing, though, is that Goldman thinks there will be a 19% recovery in Q3.