Eq: Value (90)
Value investing has underperformed over the last 15 years. Flows have followed this performance, with allocators favoring growth strategies. As a result, the number of practitioners of pure value investing has dwindled, especially in the US. Further, many are questioning, whether, it’s still a viable strategy.
There was some optimism that a period of higher interest rates and economic growth would revitalize value stocks especially following the speculative surge of many growth stocks in 2021. However, this turned out to be fleeting as the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) in 2023 sent many growth stocks to new, all-time highs, undoing value’s brief period of outperformance.
However, the story is much different from an international perspective, where value stocks have been outperforming for a meaningful period. This lends credence to the argument that value’s underperformance is more about the US and technological disruptions than a change in how markets operate. Disruptive technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence have allowed a handful of companies in the US to grow to unprecedented scale, which has distorted the growth vs. value dynamic.
History also shows that markets adapt to these technologies quite rapidly. Over time, margins and profits compress. The long-term benefits of the technology will be realized by the companies that are able to successfully implement the technology to operate more efficiently.
Finsum: Value investing has underperformed by a significant degree over the past couple of decades. Yet, it’s a different story from an international perspective.
2024 has continued 2023’s trend of growth outperforming value. YTD, the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) is up 15%, while the iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE) is up only 6%. For many investors and portfolio managers, this presents an opportunity to increase exposure to high-quality, value stocks.
NewEdge Wealth CIO Cameron Dawson sees risk with many growth stocks given ‘nosebleed valuations’. However, he believes that there are value stocks with strong balance sheets and cash flow that still have growth potential, specifically in semiconductor supply chain stocks, and older growth stocks that have now matured into value stocks like eBay or Broadcom.
Another approach is to look at ‘unloved sectors’. Examples include utilities, materials, financials, and energy. These have underperformed in the last couple of years amid an environment of higher rates and decelerating global growth. If financial and economic conditions start to improve, then these sectors could enjoy strong rallies. Housing is another interesting area for value investors, given strong fundamentals due to demographic-driven demand and limited supply in addition to attractive valuations.
According to history, small-cap value stocks tend to outperform during this part of the market cycle. Eric Leve, the CIO of Bailard, sees the next group of AI winners emerging from this category with particular upside in software-as-a-service and cybersecurity stocks.
Finsum: Value investing is certainly out of favor given the massive outperformance of growth over the last few years. Yet, many investors and portfolio managers see this as an opportunity to increase exposure and de-risk and diversify their portfolios.
Growth has consistently outperformed value since the Great Recession. For a while, this was attributed to the Fed’s dovish policies, however this has now continued even during this period of substantially higher rates.
There are some indications that investors should consider rebalancing between value and growth to maintain diversification, since they may be overexposed following growth’s significant outperformance over the past year. In reality, the opposite is happening as inflows are heavily skewed towards technology.
Over the past year, net inflows into technology ETFs amounted to $18 billion which is nearly equivalent to net outflows in all other sector ETFs. This is also exacerbated by the massive size of the largest 7 technology companies which have become dominant in market-cap weighted indices.
Another reason to consider value is that it would likely outperform in adverse market conditions given lower multiples and less froth. This could be a prudent choice for investors who are on the sidelines but wary of risks like a recession or inflation.
Additionally, value tends to do well following periods of froth in markets. For instance, value outperformed in the years following the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the frenzy in equity markets during the pandemic. If valuations revert to the mean, then it could also set the stage for a value renaissance. During these periods, the best performing stocks tend to produce high levels of free cash flow relative to their market caps while maintaining strong balance sheets.
Finsum: Value underperformed growth by a significant degree over the past year, continuing the prevailing trend of the last decade. Here’s why investors should consider increasing exposure to value ETFs.
Value stocks have consistently underperformed growth stocks for many years. Yet, there are some signs that 2024 could herald a change in trend. Underperformance in value stocks was exacerbated in 2023 as many growth stocks, in the tech sector, saw huge gains due to excitement around artificial intelligence (AI).
However, this could present a silver lining for value stocks as they are historically cheap, and mean-reversion could lead to solid gains. Further, growth stocks have become quite expensive, following the most recent rally, and there could be rotation into value especially if earnings don’t meet investors’ lofty expectations.
Value stocks are primarily comprised of healthcare, industrial, and financial stocks. A major impediment over the past year has been the struggles in the banking system due to high rates and an inverted yield curve. This means that lending is not as profitable, while banks are paying high rates on deposits but holding loans that were made when rates were much lower. But, there could be some relief coming as the Fed signals it will look to cut rates later this year.
In addition to the path of monetary policy, the economy re-accelerating would be another positive catalyst for the sector. Many value stocks are economically sensitive and would see an increase in top and bottom-line numbers. However if investors are bearish on the economy but want exposure to value, they can stick with utilities and consumer staples which would outperform in a lower growth circumstance.
Finsum: Value stocks underperformed in 2023. Here’s why 2024 is shaping up to be better, and under what circumstances, value will outperform growth.
It can seem daunting, of course, to develop a brand from scratch, according to lpl.com. Whether it’s choosing a name to developing a personal logo, the reverberations of doing so endures. And that can be pretty intimidating.
When it comes to your financial practice -- your powers of creativity aside – methodical’s the name of the game. A few simple starter steps:
- Define your value proposition
- Pick your DBA name
- Develop a logo
- Develop a Website
- Execute with Consistency
Then there’s the power of persuasion.
Want others to pick up on your professional and personal success? Well, you need to convince them to see your value, according to hbr.org.
These days, everyone – every where’s – a brand, and it’s paramount for your to develop yours and market it like doing so comes natural.
Personal branding’s intentional. It’s also a strategic practice where you define and spell out your personal value proposition. Now, there’s nothing new able carefully cultivating your public persona and reputation, the potential audience has significantly been expanded by online research and social media.
--Are annuities the way to travel, or are you better off whipping out your trusty IPhone and beckoning a Uber?
--Questions…..questions. Okay, so, what are some of the trepidations surrounding annuities?
--One factor, apparently, is inflexibility. It goes like this: with a fixed or fixed index annuity, your interest rate? Why, for the life of the contract, it’s locked in, according to annuityexpertadvice.com. Meaning? Well, if rates trek north, you’ll derive nothing stemming from a spike in returns. Conversely, if rates falter, you’re good because your investment’s shielded from receding.
--Then there’s the bugaboo of market fluctuations revolving around your investment that enters the equation with a variable annuity. With a drop in the stock market comes a decline in the value of your investment.
--Meantime, customization also enters the picture. Risks most conceivably linked to annuities can be mitigated by the fact the annuities themselves are, by their nature, custom friendly, according to sophisticatedinvestor.com. A caveat, however: that features comes with the assumption you’re willing to fork out the cash for it.
Then there are annuity riders – provisions you invest in for annuities, the site continued. They rachet down the percentage of your annal annuity payout.
What are the fears of risks about an annuity?
With a fixed or fixed index annuity, your interest rate is locked in for the contract’s life. So if rates go up, you will not benefit from the higher returns. However, if rates go down, your investment is protected from declining.
With a variable annuity, your investment is subject to market fluctuations. If the stock market goes down, your investment value will also go down. ...
Are Annuities Good Or Bad? (2022) - The Annuity Expert
Pro: If You’re Looking for a Guaranteed Income Stream in Retirement, an Annuity Can Help
An annuity can be a good option if you’re looking for a guaranteed income stream in retirement. With an annuity, you make a lump sum payment upfront and then receive payments from the annuity provider for a set period of time, typically for the rest of your life. This can provide peace of mind knowing that you have a guaranteed income stream to cover your basic living expenses in retirement.
Con: Annuities Come with High Fees
One of the most significant drawbacks of annuities is that they come with high fees (typically variable annuities). These fees can eat away your investment returns, leaving you with less money than you started with. So be sure to review the fee structure of any annuity before investing carefully.
Doing a solid or two for investors; hey, the more the merrier, right? So, when it comes to active fixed income, it’s said that active managers dispense important expertise, which explains why they can bill slightly more than passively managed funds. When it comes to fees, of course, they tend to be a bit easier on the pocketbook, according to ftadviser.com.
But – and isn’t there typically one – the debate among bond investors is more nuanced. Here’s the upshot: to some, because of the immense size of the bond market and since it’s so liquid, pinpointing the market inefficiencies that put active managers, or are supposed to, in a position to deliver value’s a little, well, trickier.
That said, this just in: it’s snot incumbent on active managers to be perfect. Yep; seriously.
In fact, during the past 70 years, studies of market indices show, these managers can land on the wrong side of the market approaching 40% of the time, according to naaim.org. And even then still equal a buy and hold return. When the market’s in an upturn, the deeper an investor reaches into their pocket, the more performance leverage they generate.
Value stocks are usually sought after for their relatively cheap prices trading at low P/E ratios or below book values. They had been on a near decade-long losing streak that culminated in the Pandemic crisis, which drove investors to the lofty tech-based growth stocks, but things turned around for value in September 2020 but were once again stalled out by the delta variant. However, as the economy begins to once again stabilize value is coming back with a vengeance. Bankruptcy concerns and thin profit margins are no longer fears, and value is at the ultimate discount. Research Affiliates, and investment strategy firm, value is poised to return between 5-10% in the coming decade. Global vaccine rates are making progress and cyclical sectors and hence then value sectors are going to turn around the way they started to in September 2020.
FINSUM: Value’s comeback seems inevitable, the ultra-low prices are out of wack stability will see value outperforming other factors in the upcoming year.
And the Big Winner from the Growth Stock Tumble is…
Written by FINSUM
The Fed is beginning to talk tapering and that has sent treasury yields spiking to 3-month highs (since before delta was spreading rapidly). The treasury yield spike has sent Growth stocks, such as in the technology sector, tumbling. Investors caught in the middle have flocked to value stocks, such as energy and financials. These stocks have cyclical reopening qualities and investors are singing the same reflationary trade song from back in May. However, growth doesn’t look quite as sluggish, and this might keep these stocks rolling a bit longer. Supply side factors in energy in particular will keep value strong beyond interest rates falling or inflation being more than transitory.
FINSUM: Value needs this middle zone of moderate inflation and moderate growth. If either fall off or pick up too much it could push investors back into growth or push the whole market down!
(New York)
Treasury yields sank last week, before rebounding strongly late in the week…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.
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(New York)
Expensive stocks are the norm these days as P/E ratios are near all-time highs…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.
(New York)
General Electric is a withered giant. Sure, it has ridden the comeback since the start of the pandemic, but it's so far off the $30 price tag of five years ago. However, Goldman Sachs sees a better future in the tea leaves for GE. In a memo to investors, Goldman set a $16 price target for GE and sees it as a ‘self-help’ success story. Goldman alludes to the repaired finances and leverage under the CEO Larry Gulp. Additionally, a global recovery, higher energy consumption, and better margins could push their stock higher, potentially a $20 price target. Earning projections remain strong for GE through the end of the year.
FINSUM: General electric is in a solid cheap position and Goldman might have been on to something as the stock lifted to $13 early in the week.
(New York)
The U.S. economy could be running as hot as ever, particularly when it comes to price pressure…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site
(Houston)
Markets have been turbulent over the last month but overall 2021 couldn’t be…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site