Displaying items by tag: retail
One year ago you could have easily said that brick and mortar retail was effectively dead, or at least had a very bleak…See the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.
The brick and mortar electronics store GameStop experienced an internet fueled rally this January with the stock prices closing at $147 on Tuesday. The surge was primarily driven by the “wallstreetbets” subreddit, an internet message board. Trading on Gamestop was paused 9 times on monday in order to halt the perceived hysteria. Short sellers are nowhere near dropping off despite having a mark to market loss of more than $5 billion. In fact, shorted shares have increased to over 900,000 in the last week which brings their value of the position to $69million. On the message boards one redditor posted screenshots of their own return at over$1000.
FINSUM: Frenzied bubbles are not an exception in markets and are recorded back to the17th century, however the driving force being a small message board on the internet does make this unique. The stock did experience strong growth in the 4th quarter of 2020 in part as response to the release of new video gaming consoles, but this rapid rise has more to do with memes than it does with fundamentals.
There has been a lot of negative press about the fate of retail under COVID, and with good reason. Brick and mortar businesses have been devastated and the bankruptcies have been relentless. However, one of the less noticed aspects is that many ecommerce businesses are doing very well. In fact, some retail ETFs, like the Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) have been surging as stocks like Carvana, Overstock.com, and Peloton have seen their shares soar.
FINSUM: Ecommerce is a great bet for right now and for the foreseeable future. In its most basic sense, all COVID did to retail was accelerate the shift to ecommerce into a much faster gear. It was like a five-year jump in four months. There is no reason to expect that to revert any time soon.
Morgan Stanley put out a very direct research report this week. In it, it tells investors which stocks they definitely should not buy. The bank selected 22 “Secularly Challenged Stocks” which it says no one should own right now. Here is a selection: Alcoa, AMC Networks, Abercrombie & Fitch, CenturyLink, Macerich, Cheesecake Factory, H&R Block, Michael’s, and Molson Coors Beverage.
FINSUM: A lot of names one would expect here, but some that are a bit of a surprise. We certainly would not want to own Macerich given the state of commercial retail real estate, but CenturyLink would not seem nearly so dangerous.
The stock market may be complicated right now, but some things are abundantly clear. One of those is how the retail sector, and retail stocks in general, are going to react to the crisis. The answer is that big players are going to continue to grow, largely at the expense of smaller retailers. Bigger companies, with sophisticated websites and massive free shipping operations, have been thriving as small companies falter.
FINSUM: Think Amazon and Walmart, maybe Shopify (see other story about Shopify from today), as these companies will be the ones winning orders from customers over the short and long-term.