FINSUM
(Washington)
While many readers often accuse us of having one political persuasion or another (we get accused by both sides all the time!), we try to be pretty neutral about politics here at FINSUM. On this particular topic, we want to weigh in very clearly (even though we don’t, have a clear position). Earlier this week, the President said what was easily the most heartfelt, eloquent and “presidential” comment of his presidency, and given this topic, we think it is worth sharing. He said “I have it make the biggest decision of my life, and I only hope to god I get it right”. Well, his view was made more clear today, which is that he is favoring a quick reopening.
FINSUM: In our view, nobody knows the right answer to the question about balancing the risk to life versus the imperative of providing economic security. In many ways it is a catch-22. We think a really well-considered strategy is needed.
Earlier this week, the Small Business Administration released aggregate details about the amount of loans “approved” in each sector and each state for the Paycheck Protection Program. However, the document did very little to help business owners understand where their money is, says COVID Loan Tracker.
“Approved” has become a very vague term as it concerns the SBA. COVID Loan Tracker says it has received hundreds of emails from small business owners who say that they have received notices of “approval” but have then waited several days before receiving money, or still have not received it.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
While the release of the data by the SBA does help gain insight into which sectors and states will ultimately receive money, the agency has been reticent to release the numbers of actual loan disbursement (i.e. money actually paid out). This figure would be much more illustrative of how the PPP loan program is proceeding.
For instance, the document does not lend any clarity to the percent of applications that have been paid. According to COVID Loan Tracker, that figure stands at just 5%, a far cry from the ~70% the SBA says has been “approved”. “Where is the money”, says one of COVID Loan Tracker’s founders, Duncan MacDonald-Korth.
(New York)
New data emerging today is for the first time showing the scale of the devastation that has occurred to the US economy. Industrial production fell 5.4% in March, the worst fall since 1946. Headline retails sales fell a whopping 8.7%. Both data points were worse than economists predicted.
FINSUM: What is really worrying here is that large parts of the US were not even shutdown until the very end of March. This means April’s numbers are likely to be a complete washout. Judging by indexes, this scared markets.
(San Francisco)
Apple just debuted a new phone model and they appear to have made a very wise decision. The company unveiled its new version of the iPhone SE, its lowest end model of the iPhone, for just $399, the same price as the original SE model in 2016. However, this phone is significantly beefed up, and Apple says its Bionic Chip is the “fastest chip in a smartphone”. The pricing, of course, comes at a time of major economic hardship for most Americans.
FINSUM: This is a wise play both from a revenue generation standpoint and a branding standpoint. It would be hard for most of the US to justify a $1,000+ upgrade right now.
https://www.covidloantracker.com/
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
Today the site is announcing an exciting new development—all stats will be available in real-time! Data on successful PPP loans and EIDL advances, as well as on all applications, will be live and in real-time on COVID Loan Tracker. This mean small business owners and the press can get live and updated information 24 hours per day.
Additionally, the new automated reporting will feature data visualization tools which help to understand how and where money is flowing, such as heat mapping states where the most money is flowing.
According to COVID Loan Tracker, big banks are not doing a good job getting money moving to those who have applied for PPP loans. In their latest update yesterday afternoon, with around 8,000 companies reporting around $3.5 bn of loans from all 50 states, the large majority are getting approved through small and regional banks. In fact, JP Morgan Chase seems to be the only bank getting any applications approved, as Wells Fargo and Bank of America are showing very few approvals on COVID Loan Tracker, with Citi showing none.
PLEASE HELP US HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Small and regional banks have been leading the charge in approvals all over the country. This is reportedly because many small and regional banks were already set up to process SBA loans as part of their normal course of business before the COVID-19 outbreak. This means they were already familiar and connected to the E-Tran system being used to process the loans by the SBA.
(New York)
Some investment banks are saying that the worst of the volatility is over and that markets have bottomed (e.g. Goldman Sachs). However, different approaches give very different valuations. For instance, a new research opinion from Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at INTL FCStone, says that fair value for the S&P 500 is 1,800, or more than 35% below today’s value. The method that comes to that conclusion is a discounted cash flow method that tries to derive the value of future cash flows.
FINSUM: In our opinion, this is a total crap shoot (and even more so right now) as the market is being driven by emotion and speculation to an even larger degree than usual.
(New York)
Dividend stocks are a scary space right now. Not only are earnings likely to be very volatile, but companies have announced major dividend cuts and the suspension of buyback programs. With that in mind, here are some stocks that offer safe and rewarding dividends. Regulated utilities are a great place to turn because they have government-allowed profit margins and are very recession-resistant. Check out American Electric Power (3.3% yield), Dominion Energy (4.6%), FirstEnergy (3.5%), NextEra Energy (2.3%).
FINSUM: These seem like great bets. They are down a little since the COVID explosion, which has boosted yields, but utilities are generally great recession stocks.
We could not be more excited today, as Mark Cuban has featured COVID Loan Tracker and shared with his LinkedIn following.
COVID Loan Tracker was founded in Miami by husband and wife team Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth in order to help small business owners track when PPP loan money starts flowing and empower journalists with the data they need to hold the government accountable.
The site’s traffic jumped by 50x yesterday versus Friday and COVID Loan Tracker received an additional 4,000 survey submissions from small businesses yesterday. In total, CLT is now tracking 7,000 PPP loan applications amounting to about $3 bn in applications.
Thus far only about 4% of companies reporting have successfully received PPP Loans.
(New York)
Goldman Sachs is making their position clear. The bank thinks that after all the volatility we have seen, the worst is behind us and stocks have already hit bottom. Goldman says that because of the Fed’s “do whatever it takes” attitude, it is unlikely the market will fall further. “The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse … These policy actions mean our previous near-term downside of 2,000 is no longer likely” for the S&P 500 Index, according to the bank’s strategists.
FINSUM: We are of two minds on this. On the one hand, Goldman makes a good point about the Fed propping up markets. On the other, there is a liquidity-induced real estate crisis brewing and the true ramifications of this downturn (including its expression in S&P 500 earnings) will not be felt for a few months.