FINSUM
(Houston)
Is the oil market a leading indicator of what is to come in the economy? Do we have way more supply and infrastructure to deliver it than there is demand to gobble it up? Oil was at $11 a barrel this morning, a mind boggling price. Stocks, on the other hand, have rallied hugely, to the point where it sometimes seems like investors have forgotten the country is shut down. Oil is obviously an idiosyncratic market, but if you really take a look at the situation, it is falling because of a big plunge in demand.
FINSUM: Is the oil market just smarter than equities right now? It does seem entirely possible that given the inevitable contraction in consumer spending, we may have more infrastructure to produce and delivery goods and services than we do demand, which means stocks could be in for a very rough patch.
(San Francisco)
The market has seen some very healthy (or perhaps not) gains in the last few weeks, but many are still worried about a plunge to come as the full impact of the COVID lockdown reverberates through the economy. Tech stocks have been big beneficiaries of the rally, with the big companies adding $250 bn to their market caps recently. Those gains look more sustainable than elsewhere too. Fund managers have been seeking refuge in the shares, and their business models look more defensible than most.
FINSUM: We are very bullish on big tech stocks. This whole lockdown is going to shift habits more towards ecommerce (and not just online retail, but food ordering etc), which means Google and Facebook are going to be able to collect their digital advertising tax on a bigger pot than ever.
(New York)
Dividends and buybacks have been looking very weak. Many buyback programs have been suspended and are likely to be under political pressure, while dividends are looking very at-risk because of likely poor earnings. So where to get some stable dividends? Barron’s ran a piece picking 40 of the safest dividends in the market. Here is a sampling: Nike, McDonald’s, Target, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar, Honeywell International.
FINSUM: This seems like a sound list. The only argument we might have is that Nike might not be able to maintain the hefty price increases consumers have stomached over the last five years.
One of the big questions in the small business world right now is “where is my PPP loan”. The SBA announced last week that the program had run out of money. Yet, the large majority of small business report that they have not received funds, even those that have been “approved”.
COVID Loan Tracker was founded for exactly this purpose—to find out when money from the PPP program actually starts flowing. The SBA says around 1.7m loans were approved, accounting for only 6.6% of the 30,000,000 small businesses in the country. Yet of the $349 bn “approved”, only about 7% of companies say they have received any funds.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
As of 7:00 am this morning here is our data on actual disbursements:
Total Applied: 13,428 companies
Total received money: 941 companies
Percent receiving money: 6.97%
Total Dollars received: $320,000,000
Median Employees per successful applicant: 15
Median Loan size: $320,000
Median Length to receive loan: 9 days
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
HELP US KEEP THE DATA FLOWING
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE SURVEY
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when and where PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Retail is one of the largest sectors of the US economy. Tens of millions of workers earn their living in the sector and millions of small business owners employ them. However, this group—at once the most visible and vulnerable victims of the lockdown—are being left out in the cold by the PPP initiative. It has already been well established that “large” small businesses have fared much better in the Paycheck Protection Program, but retail small business owners may have even more to lose.
The common practice in commercial leasing to small businesses in the US is that landlords require tenants to put up personal guarantees in order to execute a lease. That means that if a business is unable to afford the rent, their own personal assets are the on hook to pay the landlord. Small business owners usually have no choice but to accept the terms—if they do not, they cannot lease the space. Since almost all landlords require this, small business owners are left with a stark choice: commit to a personal guarantee, or don’t open a business.
While it is clear at this point that smaller small business owners have not been helped by this program, that is doubly true for retail owners, for whom payroll is usually a minority expense compared to rent, utilities, and inventory. Accordingly, the small shop owners of America—hardware stores, clothing boutiques, nail salons, dry cleaners, cobblers, bar owners etc are at grave risk of losing not just their business, but their own assets, such as savings, houses, future income. They stand to lose everything.
COVID Loan Tracker, a union of over 17,000 small business owners representing billions of dollars in Paycheck Protection Program applications, demands that the federal government increase the funding for PPP to $1tn within 48 hours.
The first round of the Paycheck Protection Program has proven that the initial conception of the distribution of funds was flawed from top to bottom. The program has done very little to help genuine small businesses and instead has benefited large companies who have used subsidiary entities to benefit disproportionately and unfairly. The examples abound. Banks have incentivized large and important customers—those who need PPP money least—at the expense of the backbone of the nation: genuine small business owners, or those who run “small” small businesses and are an intimate part of the communities they inhabit and serve. These are the people whom the program was designed to protect, and those whom have been most failed by it. 93.3% of US small business owners have received no money from the first phase of PPP, amounting to 28,000,000 businesses. This is a wrong that must urgently be made right.
In addition to increasing funding to $1 tn, we propose the following rules:
1. 50% of the total dollars funded through the program must go to businesses with 50 employees or less (with the employee count taken as of February 15th, 2020)
2. The next 25% of the total dollars funded through the program must go to businesses with less than 150 employees (with the employee count taken as of February 15th, 2020)
3. The next 25% of the total dollars funded through the program must go to businesses with less than 250 employees (with the employee count taken as of February 15th, 2020)
4. Businesses with less than 50 employees will have their applications processed first, with applications for funding larger businesses only being approved once the full 50% has been allocated to those businesses with less than 50 employees.
5. Any remaining funding that exists after these disbursements will be allocated to those businesses with less than 50 employees.
6. No entity with any ownership association to any business with more than 250 employees may be given funding.
7. Every lender which takes part in the Paycheck Protection Program must make every effort to process and disburse all loan applications within 14 days of application receipt. Those lenders which are found to be routinely in failure of this standard shall have their processing fees reduced by 50% at a minimum.
This plan will ensure that the small business owners who need this money most—the smallest of small business owners—will get the funding they deserve. These small businesses are the heart and soul of every village, town, and city in this nation. What will our country become if we fail them?
Please back our proposal and help genuine small business owners.
Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth
Small business owners and founders of COVID Loan Tracker
This is likely to be the hardest weekend ever for millions of small business owners around the country. The SBA ran out of money on Thursday after just 1.6 million business had loans been “approved”—the vast majority of which have not been paid, according to COVID Loan Tracker. There are 30 million small businesses in this country. Even discounting for shell companies, that means tens of millions of small businesses got nothing from the program and are now facing doom. Forbes estimates the program only funded 5% of small businesses in the country.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESSES BY FILLING OUT OUT THE COVID LOAN TRACKER SURVEY.
Congress needs to urgently refund the program to help these businesses, but it is also worth noting that there were vast discrepancies in those who received PPP money. “Those who had pre-existing credit relationships with banks did much better”, says Duncan MacDonald-Korth, cofounder of COVID Loan Tracker. “And ‘big’ small businesses are much more likely to have those credit relationships”, he continued. Accordingly, COVID Loan Tracker found that over 81% of those who received PPP had pre-existing lending relationships with small banks! That means the millions of small businesses who fund themselves by making more money than they spend were boxed out of this program.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand where PPP and EIDL money is flowing. We are empowering the business community and journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
Small business owners around the country are scratching their heads amidst their broader panic about the news that the Paycheck Protection Program funding has run out. According to COVID Loan Tracker, which has tracked the applications of 15,000 small businesses totaling over $5 bn in PPP loans, only around 6% of companies have actually had loans deposited in their accounts. Many small businesses are wondering “where is the money?”, says COVID Loan Tracker co-founder Rita MacDonald-Korth.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE SURVEY
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
The two founders of the site report that they have had extensive communication with banks and lenders over the last ten days and the huge difference between “approved” loans and disbursed loans can be accounted for by the behavior of borrowers, the banks, and the SBA.
“The speed with which the PPP program was designed led to inherent flaws and misaligned interests that have caused huge bottlenecks in deploying funds to small businesses”, says Duncan MacDonald-Korth. According to MacDonald-Korth, the problem is that the poor initial guidelines for banks and the “first come first serve” nature of the program, made borrowers apply to many banks/lenders at once. Because of that “there was double to triple the volume of applications as actual businesses applying”. This caused an apparent cascade of issues.
Firstly, it compelled banks to submit applications to the SBA for approval before they were actually complete. Because banks get paid a 1-5% fee for processing the loan, they want to make sure they process it and not a competitor. Accordingly, with so many duplicate applications, it made sense for the banks to urgently submit applications to the SBA—in order to win approval versus other lenders—even if all the paperwork was not in order. The SBA, in turn, had to make sure it was not approving duplicate applications, so it had double check each application flowing in, slowing down the process. All of this leads to the situation we have today—money entirely exhausted, but the vast majority of it not paid out because banks are still getting the proper paperwork from borrowers.
It is now official, the Paycheck Protection Program has exhausted its entire $349 bn. The announcement came yesterday that all the money in the program has been “approved”. However, that announcement left small business owners in confusion, as data shows very little money has arrived. According to COVID Loan Tracker, less than 6% of small business owners say that they have actually received money.
COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.
PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM
Small business owners are having trouble reconciling the difference they see between the SBA’s numbers and the lack of money they see in their accounts. The SBA has done little to clear up the confusion, as they have not made actual loan disbursement data public. “Where is the money? That is what all small business owners are asking us. We are getting thousands of those emails a day.”, says Rita MacDonald-Korth, co-founder of COVID Loan Tracker.
(New York)
A famous contrarian fund manager, Alan Lancz, put out a very interesting quote today. He said that “The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history”. He argues that the manner in which the US economy is reopened will dictate the direction of the next several years of the recovery. In his view, even the best case scenario is a U-shaped recovery where it will take a long time to get back to where we were. In his words, “The much talked about ‘V’ shaped recovery is no longer in the equation because of the unprecedented combination of negatives with this crisis”.
FINSUM: We can’t help but agree. This lockdown has lasted so long—and will likely continue for a while longer—that we can’t imagine we will be back to February 2020’s economic output level until 2022.