(Chicago)

It was only a matter of time until US industry started to feel the pain of the current American-led trade war. Now it is happening. US manufacturers are reporting rising costs and difficulties in sourcing ahead of the tariff deadline. These companies say that the metal tariffs, combined with the threat of falling export business, all caused by tariffs, is threatening to make them stop hiring or making new investments. “We had a good year last year, and we’re in the middle of a good year this year. But we are very concerned about the tariffs”, says an Ohio manufacturer of excavation equipment.

FINSUM:That penultimate sentence is the most scary of all—that manufacturers may stop hiring and investing. That would be a leading indicator of a coming recession, especially if it has a trickle down effect to other sectors.

(New York)

Yields have been pinned for several weeks now. Ten-year US Treasuries are currently trading around 2.86% and have been at that level for some time, while thirty-year bonds are also under 3%. The typical reasons cited for this are the looming trade war and fear of recession, which makes the bonds look attractive. However, there may be a much less obvious reason yields are staying low—a poorly known tax benefit being exploited by institutional investors. Pension funds have been devouring Treasuries as the new tax cuts incentivize companies to contribute majorly to their pension funding. And since pension funds tend to invest in long-dated bonds as a way of matching their liability timeline, long-dated Treasuries have seen massive inflows.

FINSUM: There has been so much speculation about yields being pinned, and one of the main reasons behind it seems to be a tax incentive. Very interesting to know that it is not necessarily the economic environment keeping downward pressure on yields.

(New York)

Not only is the broker protocol collapsing underneath the feet of advisors, but a new court ruling has just set a precedent which will likely make it harder for advisors to switch firms. A recent ruling by the Georgia Court of Appeals says that advisors who have agreed in a contract to give advance notice of departure, but then do not, are not covered by the Broker Protocol. The case stemmed from a smaller firm, Aprio Wealth Management, making a claim against a group of advisors who moved to Morgan Stanley. “We’re really pleased with the court-of-appeals ruling on this case … We think it’s a very meaningful decision for small and midsize firms, especially for registered investment advisers that can feel confident they’ll be protected from poaching like happened to us”.

FINSUM: The bottom line of this story seems to be that one needs to make sure to give appropriate notice. However, that is not always be easy as there might be extenuating circumstances.

(New York)

Despite all the fears over a trade war, recession, and bear market, there has been relatively little media chatter surrounding gold. Gold is usually seen as a good hedge to political and market calamity, and while it has seen some gains, there isn’t the usual excitement that surrounds it. All of that may be good news, however, for stocks as the spread between gold and platinum suggests the equity bull market has more room to run, according to a pair of professors from Cornell and USC. The gold-platinum ratio reflects both industrial demand and investor anxiety, and when it is high, it tends to indicate that stocks will perform well.

FINSUM: There are a lot of factors that go into the price relationship between two commodities, so it is hard to draw a conclusion for a third asset class. That said, the logic underlying this argument seems sound.

(New York)

Investors turned heavily towards income-producing stocks prior to Trump’s presidency. With yields so low, they offered income which was very hard to find elsewhere. More recently, though, high yielding stocks have been losing out as rates move higher. This has caused an exodus from some areas, such as telecoms, which have lost 16% over the last 18 months. However, one important thing to bear in mind as one watches yields fall on stocks is that this is often caused by rising prices. For instance, yields have fallen in six S&P 500 sectors over the last 18 months, but the market has returned 25% in that time frame—a nice pay off for losing some yield.

FINSUM: The key point of this very basic article is to remember that falling yields in equity can mean that the sector is doing very well.