(Washington)

The back and forth over the fiduciary rule has been long, expensive, confusing, and bureaucratic. However, those opposed to the implementation of the rule should rejoice, as it appears it will die on April 30th. Legally, the DOL has until April 30th to seek a review of the Fifth Circuit Court’s vacating of the rule. If it does not do so by then the court’s ruling will go into effect on May 7th and the rule would dissolve. The DOL also has until June 13th to ask the Supreme Court to hear the case.

FINSUM: The DOL has already dropped a case in Washington D.C. because it was concerned the court there would uphold the rule. There seems to be a very low likelihood that they are going to challenge the Fifth Circuit Court’s ruling. The rule may very well dissolve on May 7th, but expect some drama before then as advocates make a final push.

(New York)

It is not pleasant to think about, but investors may need to face reality—the bear market may have arrived this winter. Stocks are already well into a correction and the immediate path forward doesn’t seem bright. All that said, not all the indicators are showing a bear market to come. Bank of America has assembled 19 indicators which have forecasted bear markets in the past. Right now, only 13 of the 19 indicators have been tripped, meaning the market may have room to move higher. While 13 out of 19 may sound high, this level was usually reached two years before the peak in prices in previous bear markets.

FINSUM: If you buy into these types of indicators, the big x-factor is how quickly the other 6 could be tripped. The big problem, of course, is that the returns at the end of a bull market tend to be the strongest, so one does not want to take all their chips off the table.

(Washington)

Donald Trump may be in some very hot water soon. Stormy Daniels’ lawyer has just moved to interview the president under oath in relation to her lawsuit against him. Her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, has just asked a California court for the right to depose the president and his lawyer. The president’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, reject Daniels’ claim, defending his payment to her saying “just because something isn’t true doesn’t mean that it can’t cause you harm or damage”.

FINSUM: We suspect this request will not actually lead to Trump speaking under oath, but that does not mean something else in the case (or others) will not eventually put the president in that position.

(New York)

Equity investors may be understandably frustrated and anxious at the moment. The rebound after February’s lows has not held up and stocks are right around their bottom for the year. Well, if history is any guide, the pain will likely last 200 days. That is the average length that a correction has lasted during this bull market, and this is the sixth of its kind since 2009. The longest was 417 days between 2015 to 2016. The market is already 60 days into the correction, so if the forecast holds, it would emerge in August.

FINSUM: This would only provide comfort if one thinks the current correction is merely that, and not a full blown bear market.

(New York)

No, the headline above is not a joke, though it may look like one to some. While it is easy to joke about people leaving millions to their dogs, the reality is that setting aside a portion of inheritance to take care of a pet is increasingly common, and advisors need to be aware. 44% of pet owners have some financial plan in their will for the care of pets, with the structure usually being that money would go to a designated caregiver. One advisor in Boca Raton who handles pet planning says “If you care about them and you want to make sure they’re taken care of, you have to have a contingency plan for them or else they end up at the Humane Society”.

FINSUM: 44% is a huge number, but it does make a lot of sense. Pets are valued family members and it seems irresponsible to many to leave them without care.