Bonds: Total Market
Goldman Sachs projects that the stock market could see a 15% rise by year-end if mega-cap tech stocks continue their strong performance. The bank argues that tech stocks are not currently in a bubble, as investors are focused on companies with profitable growth rather than speculative ones.
Goldman’s David Kostin notes that while long-term growth expectations for the S&P 500 are slightly above average, they remain well below levels seen during previous market bubbles. Despite concerns about the high concentration in a few tech giants, Goldman believes this is justified given their rapid growth compared to other S&P 500 companies.
The valuation spread between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes does not suggest bubble conditions, staying below historical extremes.
Finsum: We would look into more traditional measures like price to earning ratios if we are concerned about a bubble forming, rather than just long run growth.
Apollo Global Management Inc. is exploring the possibility of establishing a trading desk to buy and sell direct loans in the $1.7 trillion private credit market, which is typically illiquid. While the plans are still preliminary and could be abandoned, Apollo’s interest follows similar moves by other firms like Golub Capital and JPMorgan Chase.
These firms are actively trading private loans, although such transactions remain rare due to lenders' preference to hold debt until maturity. Concerns exist that increased trading could undermine the benefits of direct lending, such as privacy, convenience, and price stability.
However, secondary trading could be attractive to investors looking to enhance liquidity or reposition their portfolios. As the private credit market evolves, trading direct loans might become more common, especially for distressed assets.
Finsum: As a key figure in the space its important to keep an eye on the changes Apollo is making in private credit.
In recent months, the stock market has been extremely volatile, prompting increased interest in low-volatility low-cost ETFs. While the market has seen gains this year due to a growing appetite for riskier investments, uncertainties like the Federal Reserve's future actions, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election still loom large.
Low-volatility ETFs offer investors a way to participate in the market with potentially less risk, although they are not immune to sharp downturns. These funds may underperform compared to more dynamic portfolios, especially during market surges. However, they can be attractive for those prioritizing capital preservation over high returns.
Examples of popular low-volatility ETFs include the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, which focuses on the least volatile stocks in the S&P 500, and the iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF, which targets lower-risk companies in developed markets outside the U.S.
Finsum: Be mindful of what thematic ETFs you want to integrate into your portfolios, because there will be a chance to capitalize in the coming months.
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As the stock market hovers near all-time highs, investors are seeking a balance between optimism and caution, with alternative ETFs gaining traction as a popular choice for risk management and income generation.
The latest data reveals that while U.S. equity and fixed-income ETFs lead in demand, alternatives ETFs are growing rapidly, reflecting a shift toward more diversified and protective strategies. These funds offer exposure beyond traditional stocks and bonds, incorporating elements like commodities, digital assets, and derivatives to manage risk and generate returns.
Notably, products like the Global X Nasdaq 100 Tail Risk ETF and Fidelity's options-based portfolios are attracting attention for their innovative approaches to downside protection and income. The appeal of alternatives ETFs lies in their simplicity and accessibility, allowing even complex strategies to become core components of investor portfolios.
Finsum: Most of the time the downside of alts is the liquidity component, being able to use ETFs is a great way to counteract this.
Investors are increasingly flocking to US government bond ETFs as anticipation grows for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. BlackRock's TLT, the largest ETF for long-dated Treasury bonds, saw nearly $4 billion in inflows from early August through Monday, marking one of its highest monthly inflows since inception.
This surge indicates a resurgence in bond interest following a period of weak returns and significant outflows in 2022. As economic slowdowns push investors towards safer fixed-income options, bond yields have dropped in response to the Fed’s potential rate reductions.
Retail and institutional investors alike are rediscovering bonds, with $12.2 billion flowing into US sovereign bond ETFs in August alone. The overall bond market's revival is evident, with taxable bond funds and ETFs attracting over $280 billion in the first seven months of the year, surpassing the total inflows for 2023.
Finsum: Holding bonds as interest rates fall and their prices rise sems to be one of the classic strategies that we haven’t been able to leverage on this scale in a long time.
This year, major private equity firms like Blackstone, KKR, and Carlyle have significantly slowed their investment activity in China, reflecting growing geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s tighter control over businesses.
Once a thriving market, China's appeal has diminished rapidly, with only five small investments made by the top 10 global buyout firms this year, a stark contrast to the 30 deals made in 2021. The change marks a sharp decline in enthusiasm from international investors who once saw China as a goldmine.
Factors contributing to this downturn include geopolitical challenges, regulatory unpredictability, and a cooling economy. The slowdown in China-specific deals is more pronounced than the global trend, which has also been affected by rising interest rates, making debt-driven private equity models more costly.
Finsum: Taking stock of these geopolitical factors in important for any portfolio.