Bonds: Total Market

Goldman Sachs projects that the stock market could see a 15% rise by year-end if mega-cap tech stocks continue their strong performance. The bank argues that tech stocks are not currently in a bubble, as investors are focused on companies with profitable growth rather than speculative ones. 

 

Goldman’s David Kostin notes that while long-term growth expectations for the S&P 500 are slightly above average, they remain well below levels seen during previous market bubbles. Despite concerns about the high concentration in a few tech giants, Goldman believes this is justified given their rapid growth compared to other S&P 500 companies. 

 

The valuation spread between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted S&P 500 indexes does not suggest bubble conditions, staying below historical extremes. 


Finsum: We would look into more traditional measures like price to earning ratios if we are concerned about a bubble forming, rather than just long run growth.

Apollo Global Management Inc. is exploring the possibility of establishing a trading desk to buy and sell direct loans in the $1.7 trillion private credit market, which is typically illiquid. While the plans are still preliminary and could be abandoned, Apollo’s interest follows similar moves by other firms like Golub Capital and JPMorgan Chase. 

 

These firms are actively trading private loans, although such transactions remain rare due to lenders' preference to hold debt until maturity. Concerns exist that increased trading could undermine the benefits of direct lending, such as privacy, convenience, and price stability. 

 

However, secondary trading could be attractive to investors looking to enhance liquidity or reposition their portfolios. As the private credit market evolves, trading direct loans might become more common, especially for distressed assets.


Finsum: As a key figure in the space its important to keep an eye on the changes Apollo is making in private credit. 




In recent months, the stock market has been extremely volatile, prompting increased interest in low-volatility low-cost ETFs. While the market has seen gains this year due to a growing appetite for riskier investments, uncertainties like the Federal Reserve's future actions, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election still loom large. 

 

Low-volatility ETFs offer investors a way to participate in the market with potentially less risk, although they are not immune to sharp downturns. These funds may underperform compared to more dynamic portfolios, especially during market surges. However, they can be attractive for those prioritizing capital preservation over high returns.

 

 Examples of popular low-volatility ETFs include the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF, which focuses on the least volatile stocks in the S&P 500, and the iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF, which targets lower-risk companies in developed markets outside the U.S.


Finsum: Be mindful of what thematic ETFs you want to integrate into your portfolios, because there will be a chance to capitalize in the coming months. 

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