(New York)

Advisors need to be aware. In less than 8 weeks, everything you know about the market make up of the tech sector is going to change. Both MSCI and S&P are shifting the way they group technology companies. Netflix, Google, and Facebook will be the biggest movers, and the changes are expected to have a material affect on prices. Those three stocks will be moved to the newly formed “Communications Services” sector, and away from the two sectors they are currently split into. That will greatly lower the total weight of the Information Technology sector from 26% to 20% of the S&P 500.

FINSUM: This could really change prices as it will have a significant effect on ETF demand and other funds linked to specific indexes/sectors.

(New York)

Pensions have been on a long and miserable path since the Financial Crisis. They have been chronically underfunded and suffered from poor returns, but after a weak decade, there is finally some good news. That news is that interest rates are up, which means that US corporate pension plans are now 92.8% funded versus 87.6% funded at the beginning of the year. The shift is almost entirely because of changes in yields. Higher yields make it easier for pension funds to meet their future cash needs.

FINSUM: Higher interest rates will be better for all retirees, and it is good that pensions are finally catching a break. One wonders if we are approaching a sweet spot in rates where mortgages remain affordable, but yields are high enough to satisfy pensions and retirees.

(New York)

Are you worried about an inverted yield curve and the arrival of a recession? Morgan Stanley thinks you should be, as the bank has just called for a big bust coming to markets and the economy. MS thinks the Fed will end its contraction of its balance sheet soon, which will be supportive for long-dated Treasuries. Accordingly, with short-term rates still rising, the yield curve will invert soon; by mid-2019 says the bank. Morgan Stanley recommends investors to be overweight US Treasuries and underweight corporate credit.

FINSUM: The spread between two-years and ten-years is only 27 bp right now. We think it will much less than a year before an inversion, especially given the hawkishness of the Fed coupled with the threat of a trade war.

(New York)

Those who only pay causal attention to muni bonds might be scared away from the market by negative stories about big buildups in debt, bankruptcies, and a general erosion in credit quality. However, this year, nothing could be further from the truth. There has been a massive deleveraging of the sector in 2018, with total US muni bond issuance down a whopping 17% to-date, and on pace for 25% by the end of the year. The dearth of issuance has pushed yields down and prices up. “It’s a seller’s market”, says one muni bond analyst.

FINSUM: Part of the lack of new issuance is due to the federal tax changes, but nonetheless, the market is looking increasingly healthy.

(New York)

If there was one subset of stocks that looks deeply out of style right now, it has to be utilities. Back a few years ago, they were immensely hot as the stock market’s bond substitutes in an insanely low-yield era. Now, you can earn almost 2% on a short-term Treasury bond. However, it might be time to take another look at the sector. Most utilities are yielding about 3.3%, and have been supported over the last few weeks by the fact that bond yields have stopped rising. The sector’s stock prices have fallen just short of 10% since last September, but that means valuations look attractive, as do yields.

FINSUM: If you think yields won’t climb that much further—which we don’t, at least in the short to medium term—then utilities do seem like a good-yielding bargain.