(Chicago)

It was only a matter of time until US industry started to feel the pain of the current American-led trade war. Now it is happening. US manufacturers are reporting rising costs and difficulties in sourcing ahead of the tariff deadline. These companies say that the metal tariffs, combined with the threat of falling export business, all caused by tariffs, is threatening to make them stop hiring or making new investments. “We had a good year last year, and we’re in the middle of a good year this year. But we are very concerned about the tariffs”, says an Ohio manufacturer of excavation equipment.

FINSUM:That penultimate sentence is the most scary of all—that manufacturers may stop hiring and investing. That would be a leading indicator of a coming recession, especially if it has a trickle down effect to other sectors.