Eq: Tech

(San Francisco)

Investors have made cash the only thing that matters in markets. The Dollar is surging and investors are fleeing assets in favor of cash. Cash is a scarce and valuable asset in this downturn, and which companies have a ton of it—tech companies. While the Silicon Valley giants will take a hit from lower consumer spending, the reality is that the shutdown of normal life is pushing things ever more online—their domain. As this crisis eventually abates, giants like Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, have huge cash reserves (currently $350 bn) that will help them attract shareholder capital, and also grab market share as competition gets weeded out.

FINSUM: Tech is probably going to be in a stronger position in a year than it was six weeks ago. Their fortress balance sheets will be key.

(San Francisco)

The market is in a brutal position, everyone knows that. Peak losses hit 19% yesterday, just a hair off a bear market. The reality, though, is that some sectors are thoroughly in a bear market, including the biggest growth driver of them all—tech. The S&P info tech sector is down 20%, while Microsoft is down 20% and Apple 19%. Amazon and Facebook are both down 17%. IBM, Cisco, and older-guard tech companies are getting slaughtered down to the 25%+ range.

FINSUM: Some of these are smart to stay away from, but others could be good buying opportunities. For instance, social media companies are more exposed to consumer spending declines (and resultant advertising declines) that B2B tech companies offering cloud and other software infrastructure that is hard to cut from budgets.

(San Francisco)

Apple has been deeply wounded by the coronavirus panic. The stock fell as much as 16.5% through the weekend before good gains on Monday. The reality is that this is great time to buy Apple, as shares are offering a big discount just before the next iPhone super cycle begins. According to Wedbush, a leading Apple analyst (and referencing the coronavirus sell-off), “we believe this will be short lived as the longer term 5G super cycle thesis and services re-rating remain the crux of our bull thesis on Apple for the next 12 to 18 months.” Wedbush believes that some 350m of the nearly one billion iPhones out there are “in a window of an upgrade opportunity”.

FINSUM: Apple has a good shot at selling over 200m iPhones in the 12 months starting September 2020, likely breaking its highest sales ever. This is a good time to get ahead of that.

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