Wealth Management

The recent market gyrations and decline prompted some retirement investors to react by shifting their 401(k) investments from large-cap stocks and target-date funds to safer options like stable-value, bond, and money-market funds. 

 

The trading volume was nearly 700% the usual level, marking the highest activity since March 2020, during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the market's volatility, most 401(k) participants did not alter their accounts, but those who did generally moved towards more conservative investments to mitigate risk. 

 

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both showed slight gains by the market's close but remained below their mid-July highs. However stable value funds received a bulk of the inflows at just over 60%.


Finsum: While the recent sell off was prompted by international currency fluctuations, expect more volatility this fall and potentially more inflows into stable value.

Treasuries gained momentum following a weaker-than-expected U.S. producer prices report, reinforcing the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more aggressively. The two-year yield, which closely mirrors Fed policy expectations, fell by 8 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreased by 6 basis points. 

 

Market participants are now eagerly anticipating the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data, which could further influence rate-cut expectations. However, some Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, emphasizing the need for more economic data before supporting any rate reductions.

 

Despite recent market volatility, with shifts from expectations of a soft landing to a hard landing, uncertainty persists. 


Finsum: Markets thought there was going to be an emergency Fed meeting last week, but look to Jackson Hole for better clarification.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated that inflation is slowing, prompting speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

 

 Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, suggests that investors should focus on large-cap stocks, which have been performing well, particularly in comparison to small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000, where the majority of companies are unprofitable. 

 

He also expresses caution about sectors such as autos, airlines, and retail, noting a lack of enthusiasm in those industries. Keep in mind this combination of size and industry for the fall. 


Finsum: It’s important to keep an eye on leverage as interest rates fall this factor will greatly help the more levered companies. 

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