Wealth Management

Blackrock remains the heavyweight when it comes to the ETF market in terms of total assets and issues, but rivals are catching up. As of November of last year, Blackrock managed 32% of total assets in the US ETF market, a slight drop from 33.7% at the same time last year. This figure was at 39% just 4 years ago. 

 

Blackrock’s major rival in ETFs is Vanguard. While Blackrock has ETFs for nearly every category, Vanguard is focused on fixed income and equities while sticking to its reputation for low costs and diversification. Recent flows into ETFs have favored cheap index funds which is one factor in Vanguard taking some market share. Vanguard has seen its market share rise from 25% to 29% over the last 4 years. 

 

The story is different in Europe, where Blackrock retains its dominance. As of November 2023, the firm had 44% of total ETF assets, and this figure was unchanged over the last 5 years despite the European ETF market more than doubling. Overall, Blackrock has $9.1 trillion in assets and is expected to have net inflows of over $250 billion. 

 

Blackrock has the benefits of a first-move advantage in Europe and has developed relationships with institutions. In Europe, investing continues to be driven by institutions rather than retail traders. 


Finsum: Blackrock remains the clear, global leader in ETFs. However, Vanguard is catching up especially in the US, where its index funds are seeing rapid growth.

 

Active ETFs represent a fraction of the overall market of investable assets, but the future looks very promising given current growth rates. This is evident through the bevy of new active ETF launches which will continue in 2024. Last year, 75% of ETF launches were active. Additionally, according to Cerulli, 95% of ETF issuers have existing plans or are planning to launch active ETFs in the coming year. 

 

Some of these active ETFs will be conversions of active mutual funds, while others will follow a dual-class structure. In terms of why active ETFs are gaining traction, the biggest factor is the tax benefits of the ETF structure. In contrast, many investors in active mutual funds may find themselves with a tax bill if the fund takes profits on winning positions.

 

Additionally, the fee structure of ETFs is much simpler while it also leads to more transparency for investors. This appeals to many investors who are then able to hedge risk more effectively.  Currently, most of the focus on issuers is for transparent, active ETFs with 59% of launches falling in this category. One caveat is that active ETFs have failed to penetrate the institutional market as 80% of assets currently come from retail investors.


Finsum: Active ETFs had a strong year in 2023 and even more launches are planned for 2024. Here are the major factors driving the category’s growth. 

 

Annuity sales are expected to remain strong in the coming year on the heels of another record breaking year of sales in 2023. Whether 2024 sees another record year of sales ultimately depends on the economy and interest rates. Notably, the Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association (LIMRA) sees these favorable economic trends, such as volatility in financial markets and uncertainty about the economy and Fed policy, continuing. 

 

LIMRA notes that rates are likely to continue declining, which could also lead to a surge of sales as buyers may be eager to lock in rates at these levels. If financial markets continue to move higher, demand for products with lower risk like fixed indexed annuities and fixed-rate deferred annuities may decline while demand for registered indexed-linked annuities will climb. 

 

2023 was rare as nearly all categories saw growth. The highest rates in decades propelled sales of fixed annuities, while uncertainty around the economy and monetary policy drove growth for annuities offering downside protection. 

 

If the Fed does start to cut rates as anticipated, LIMRA projects that sales growth will eventually be impacted especially for more rate-sensitive products. In total, it forecasts sales between $311 billion and $331 billion depending on the trajectory of interest rates. 


Finsum: Annuity sales are forecast to remain strong in 2024. However, sales could slow when the Fed does actually start cutting rates as this would impact returns. 

 

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