Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
Goldman Sachs just reported its first quarterly loss since 2011. The good news is that the loss does not mean the sky is falling in on investment banking or the markets. The loss was because of a huge $4.4 bn tax charge the company took in advance of the new tax regime for this year. Aside form the tax charge, Goldman’s business looked solid, with higher overall revenue and pre-tax margins in 2017. The one sore spot was bond trading, which produced only $1 bn of revenue.
FINSUM: The fall in bond trading revenue at GS has been prolific. In 2009 the firm created $23 bn of revenue in FICC trading. In 2017 revenues were just $5.3bn.
(San Francisco)
While most publications have been running stories arguing that it may be time to get out of the FAANGs, Barron’s has a run a piece to the contrary, saying that they have more room to run. While the piece admits that the group of stocks is under a lot of pressure and is highly priced, it contends that it is not time to pull out yet. The argument is that despite accusations of misbehavior and threats from Trump, the sector will remain the centerpiece for growth investors. If the economy continues to chug (meaning stay under 3% growth), then tech’s steady growth will remain attractive.
FINSUM: We tend to like this view. Despite how richly these companies are valued, we think there is still room for medium-term value growth as regulation is still a way off and their fundamental businesses are solid.
(New York)
A lot of investors are looking for income, and over the last several years it has been hard to come by. While yields are rising, they are still very low by historical standards. With that in mind, Barron’s has run a piece selecting the best income stocks from a sector not considered as much as it should be—biotech. Many biotech companies have strong overseas cash flow, and solid yields. For instance, Pfizer, which rose just over 13% last year, sports a 3.7% yield. Abbvie and Amgen are also good looking stocks, both offering dividends just below 3%. Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and Bristol-Myers Squibb are also names to look at.
FINSUM: These are definitely some good names to look at, especially as there has not been much focus on biotech for income over the last year.
More...
(New York)
Banks are soon to be reporting their fourth quarter earnings, and Barron’s has put out an article advising investors on which stocks to buy ahead of the release. JPMorgan will report first and its numbers will have big implications for the sector. The piece cites analysts and says that Wells Fargo, Zion’s Bank, and Suntrust Bank look likely to do well, while investors should be underweight Goldman Sachs, CIT Group, and US Bancorp.
FINSUM: The tax package is going to be an interesting part of bank earnings both this earnings season and next, as some banks may do unusual tax maneuvers.
(New York)
If you are sitting on the sidelines, or want to sit on the sidelines but fear missing out on gains, then you may be exactly representative of the market. Bloomberg argues that part of what is fueling the self-perpetuating cycle of market gains right now is what it calls FOMO, or fear of missing out. At present, the fear of missing gains seems to have eclipsed all downside fears, which could be a sign of euphoria, or part of what Wall Street terms a “melt up”. Bloomberg argues that the really scary part of the current melt up is that it doesn’t really have to do with the economy, it is just psychologically driven.
FINSUM: The market is valued so richly that one can’t help but look over their shoulder, but the doom and gloom stories are still getting old. That said, the CAPE ratio (you know, Shiller’s ratio), is the highest it has EVER been (yes, greater than 1929).
(New York)
Tech has been the undisputed leader of the rally over the last several months, but there might be cracks in its armor that investors need to be aware of. Internal price momentum has started to fade in the sector, and it looks as though it might be ready to hand over leadership of the market. According to one equity analyst, “Relative performance has diverged on the sector’s new high, while semiconductors and small caps have failed to confirm as well”.
FINSUM: No one wants to hear this, but with valuations so high, it might well be true. The other big risk is regulation, but given good business momentum in the sector, there could still be some room to run.