Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
Retail stocks have had a very good run over the last year. The first half of 2017 was about as bleak as it could get for retail, which is in the midst of a major disruption caused by ecommerce. However, stocks posed a big rebound over the last twelve months on the back of consumer spending and tightened business models. However, the sector might be set for more trouble as Wall Street analysts have just downgraded about 60% of the S&P’s retail index, giving profit warnings despite good consumer spending. One analyst summed it up this way, saying “The pendulum swung too far: retail never died, but it’s likely not as healthy as people think, either … After a very strong first half, it would seem management teams feel the need to reset the bar, to bring hype back to reality”.
FINSUM: The truth is that the disruption of the industry is far from over and there is likely to be a lot more turmoil, perhaps especially in the next recession, when price competition gets even more fierce.
(New York)
A big bank has just gone on the record warning investors that a bear market is likely to start by the end of the year. So long as the Fed hikes twice more this year, which it is widely expected to do, a key bear market indicator will have been tripped. That indicator is the so-called “neutral level for interest rates”. The indicator preceded both the 2000 and 2007 bear markets. The idea is that the Fed will raise interest rates above their “neutral” level—the level at which they neither stimulate nor hold back the economy—and in doing so, will bring on a recession and bear market. The observation comes from bank Stifel, which summarized their view as “Weighing stability versus mandate, we believe the Fed has no realistic option other than to follow its projected dot-plot path, eventually revealing the speculative excesses created in the past decade”.
FINSUM: When you combine this indicator with the near yield curve inversion, it paints a very bleak picture indeed.
(San Francisco)
Apple is reported to be set unveil some big changes in the coming weeks. In what many see as Apple’s third phase, the company is set to release brand new iPads and watches. If personal computing was phase one, and iPhones were phase two, then phase 3 will be wearables, say analysts. The company has seen sales in those divisions soar recently, and they have slowly stolen wallet share from the iPad’s sales. Accordingly, Apple is putting more resources into wearables, but also debuting a new iPad and trying to redefine its purpose for customers.
FINSUM: The iPad has slowly been shrinking from the limelight at the same time as the Apple Watch and Beats have steadily grown. It is hard for us to imagine that either category will be Apple’s main sales driver in the future.
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(New York)
Those trying to earn defensive income right now should look at stocks with strongly growing dividends. Rising dividends from stable companies seem like a good way to protect capital and earn income in this rising rate era. Accordingly, three companies to look at include Swiss pharma company Novartis (3.5% and growing), Pepsico (3.3% and likely to grow), and tech company Cisco, who business is growing solidly below the radar and yields just above 3%.
FINSUM: These seem like well-thought out picks, especially because some of the dividend growth is speculative, and importantly, will be driven be real operating performance.
(Washington)
Recent polls have shown strong gains for Democrats, raising the prospect that the party will take back the House and maybe even the Senate. So what would that mean for stocks? Well, the historical picture is mixed. Generally speaking, stocks have a rough September heading into the November midterms. However, immediately before and after the election, they are relatively unaffected, no matter the outcome. Generally speaking, from the beginning of October until the end of the year (in a midterm year), stocks rally strongly.
FINSUM: The basic picture here is that we could be in for a rocky month, but that stocks may do well as we approach and move past the midterms and investors get used to the ‘new normal’, whatever that may be.
(New York)
Passive funds have seen a meteoric rise since the Financial Crisis, with AUM soaring by trillions. But within that huge growth, what have been the best returning passive funds? Financial Planning produced a slide show presenting the twenty best. The top performing funds list is dominated by the big three providers—BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, who also have 82% of all passive AUM. The top five returning funds are the SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI), Invesco Dynamic Pharmaceuticals ETF (PJP), the First Trust NYSE Arca Biotech ETF (FBT), the Invesco Nasdaq Internet ETF (PNQI), and the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN).
FINSUM: Looks like biotech and tech stocks had a great decade (nor surprise there). The rest of the top twenty is similarly dominated by tech and healthcare, but consumer stocks, defense, and semiconductors also show up.