Eq: Large Cap
(New York)
Morgan Stanley disclosed this week that it has upped its holdings in two small stocks to above 5%. While one can get a lot of info (however biased) from equity research divisions, there is nothing like seeing what banks are actually buying themselves. In this case, the two stocks are Electronics for Imaging, and Turtle Beach. The former is a digital imaging firm whose shares have been rising this year, and the latter is a gaming headset maker who shares have risen 15x this year, but is still only worth $392m.
FINSUM: Gaming headsets seem like a good growth area at the moment, but are probably outside the skillset of most investors to judge.
(San Francisco)
Central bankers meeting at their annual gathering in Jackson Hole this week have a topic at the front of their minds—is rising corporate power hurting investment, wage growth, and productivity? Looking at the figures, the picture is mixed, but that is beside the point says the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ argues that investors should buy the monopolies the central bankers are worried about, because if the bankers are right, that will mean rising returns to capital. In other words, investors will be getting more and more of the rewards.
FINSUM: Market share in most of the US’ business sectors have been consolidating for years, and there are less and less publicly traded stocks as companies swallow each other. Corporate power is rising. However, for investors, this is a simple matter as more power will likely mean better payouts and returns.
(San Francisco)
Investors are currently anxious about the SEC’s investigation of Tesla and Elon Musk, not only over the infamous tweet, but also about guidance the company has given over the years. However, Bloomberg says investors shouldn’t be worried because the SEC is unlikely to take any serious action. Bloomberg points out that the San Francisco office of the SEC is woefully understaffed and outgunned and has almost no history of going after top tech executives, something that has led the tech sector to act with more impunity than in finance.
FINSUM: We aren’t sure we like this analysis much. If there were ever a time the SEC might want to make a statement, this would be it.
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(New York)
Okay, there is a trade war going on. But even still, industrial stocks look too cheap, at least according to Barron’s. The Industrial Select SPDR is up less than 2% this year, way behind the broader market because of fears the sector will get hammered by a trade war. Compounding that is the worry that the sector is past the peak of its cycle. However, the sector is still posting strong growth and good earnings. Stocks like Boeing and Caterpillar had big gains last year, but have weakened considerably recently. Recent earnings, though, were good, showing that core machinery sales continued the 15% annual growth they have been showing for several quarters. In seems the worst could be behind the sector.
FINSUM: It is too early to say whether the sector is out of the woods, but we would say that a 2% gain this year is not exactly what we would think of as the pre-condition for calling something very cheap.
(Washington)
Bloomberg is reporting that the SEC is under a lot of pressure regarding its investigation of Tesla and Elon Musk. The SEC usually investigates companies without public knowledge, but Musk’s very public tweet changed their whole investigation (which has been going on for months), and they are now under pressure to punish the company or Musk personally. The investigation is now so public that the SEC would come under heaps of political criticism if it were to exonerate Musk.
FINSUM: The other question here is timing, as it can take years for the SEC to determine if laws were broken, but investors want an answer quickly.
(New York)
The markets look troubling right now. They are just about to cross to a new high at the same time as they have just breached the record for the longest ever bull market. P/e ratios are way above historical averages and stocks have risen 400%+ (including dividends) since their lows in 2009. At the same time, there are ample geopolitical headwinds, tightening rates, and trouble in tech. Is it time to take risk off the table? Maybe, but don’t act rashly. The key is to take small, gradual, and reversible steps. If you end up being right, you will have minimized your losses, but if you end up being wrong, you won’t kick yourself from missing gains.
FINSUM: Advisors say that these kinds of strategies are well-received by most investors, so simple risk mitigation efforts can go a long way to minimizing the psychological discomfort one feels at the potential peak of the market.