(Washington)

The Trump-era SEC is really starting to make itself felt. Not only has the SEC come out with a lighter touch “best interest” rule, but financial fines have been plummeting. In the six months from October to March, the SEC handed out $102m in fines, 93% lower than the year prior, and the lowest amount in at least 12 years. The total number of cases also fell by a quarter. The largest fine so far under SEC head Jay Clayton was $14m, tiny compared to the $415m fine levied against BAML under former SEC head Mary Jo White.

FINSUM: Financiers had been hoping that we were entering a regulatory-light era under Trump. It really seems to be materializing.

(New York)

Artificial intelligence is one of the hottest concepts in tech, and one of the most intangible from an investing standpoint. Since “AI” seems to be something that most companies are developing internally, the concept remains difficult to invest in directly for most investors. Those wanting to invest in AI can look beyond Google, Facebook, and the rest of the FAANGs, however. According to one analyst, one should look for specific software companies that have “tremendous expertise in their specific industry, understand their customers’ businesses, and provide highly tailored solutions”. These include Aspen Systems, Guidewire Software, and Veeva Systems.

FINSUM: AI doesn’t have many widely available direct investing opportunities, so these seem like some very interesting picks if you want to bet directly on the technology.

(New York)

Investors beware, the fundamentals of the junk bond market are looking terrible. The deterioration of the market has been happening for a long time, and thus it makes it easier not to realize it. The junk bond market is now about twice the size it was in 2007, and credit quality is lower. Protections for investors, in the form of covenants, are also much weaker as issuers were able to use the ultra-low rate market to their advantage. Now the big worry is that Libor is rising and many companies have floating rate debt that they cannot cover once it reaches certain levels.

FINSUM: According to the WSJ, the market should expect $500 bn of junk bond defaults over the next three years, and this figure could amplify considerably.

(Rome)

The big recovery after the huge losses in Italy might finally be underway. While downward pressure on Italian assets had subsided, there is now a big rally happening. The catalyst is that the country’s finance minster has just pledged that Italy will stay in the Euro, helping ease the market’s largest worry about the political crisis in Rome. The minister also pledged to avoid financial instability.

FINSUM: Italy’s two-year bond has already seen its yield fall 100 bp! That is quite a response. To be honest we doubt this pledge amounts to much, but it is good signaling for the market.

(Washington)

After 6 months of posturing, threats, and cancellations, it is all finally going to happen tomorrow. President Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim in Singapore. The South Koreans are referring to the meeting as the “summit of the century”, and everyone seems to hope it will be a success. It will be the first time two sitting leaders of the two nations have met. Trump is hoping clinch a deal for a denuclearization program in exchange for making North Korea more included in the economic system.

FINSUM: The US is cautioning that this will be the start of a long program rather than a big bang deal. That seems reasonable given the history here.

(Los Angeles)

One of the most disruptive technologies in industry might not seem that disruptive—batteries. Yet advances in batteries are about to reshape many areas, not least of which is the power grid. Home energy storage and car battery power are two of the biggest areas of disruption, and investors need to understand the dynamics in play. Better batteries mean less energy costs as power can be stored to smooth out demand-based pricing. It also makes electric vehicles legitimate, and possibly cheaper competitors to gas vehicles. Additionally, improved energy storage makes renewables profitable.

FINSUM: Batteries are going to change the economics of almost everything related to power. Make sure you understand some of the key battles because share prices are going to start reflecting the changes.

(New York)

While Treasury yields, especially at the short end of the curve, have improved a great deal recently. Many investors may still be interested in adding some stocks with good dividends to their portfolios. With that in mind, pharma may be a great place to look. The sector is having a tough time this year—down over 6% to-date—but that means dividend yields are looking strong. The sector is averaging 2.9%, but the best payers are near 4%, including some big names. For instance, AbbVie and Pfizer are both yielding 3.7% or over, and both seem to have rock solid outlooks where that dividend is not going to shrink.

FINSUM: These seem to be some great choices. The risk here does not appear to be in the fundamentals, but more related to interest rates.

(Washington)

Investors, be worried about the Fed, and not for the reasons you think. While all the market’s focus has been on how quickly the Fed will raise rates, what could really cause problems is the Fed’s unwinding of its balance sheet. According to the Indian central bank, this unwinding is sucking Dollars out of the system and causing a Dollar liquidity squeeze. According to Urjit Patel, the governor of India’s central bank, this Dollar-squeeze means “a crisis in the rest of the dollar bond markets is inevitable”, with a growing “possibility . . . a ‘sudden stop’ for the global economic recovery”.

FINSUM: It sounds like emerging markets are going to have increasing trouble issuing Dollar bonds, which could definitely throw a wrench into the recovery. Maybe this is how the Fed sparks a global recession and not just an American one.

(Washington)

Advisors all over the country are wondering when the SEC rule might be implemented. The DOL’s fiduciary rule took ages to be a reality (and never quite made it), but the SEC rule seems like it will be faster. But how fast? Realistically, probably one year from now, according to one industry expert. BNY Mellon Pershing urges advisors to stay engaged and not catch “fiduciary rule fatigue”. “We still have an opportunity to shape the fiduciary landscape … It's really important that we don't grow weary of the standard of care issue, because we have an opportunity to take the lead”.

FINSUM: A year sounds reasonable. The rule is only in its first iteration now, and we suspect there will be significant changes.

(New York)

The US real estate market looks set to change in a big way. Brokers and developers are sensing it, and consumers are making it happen. The change is in the geography of the market. The new SALT limits in the updated tax code mean that wealthy residents of higher tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California, now face much higher tax liabilities. As a response, many of them are seeking to buy homes and domicile themselves in tax-free states like Florida, Texas, or Nevada. One real estate developer in Nevada explains the situation, saying “If you’re a wealthy tech executive from the Bay Area who can live wherever you want and you have a $3 million income, you would have $399,000 a year in savings here. That’s a lot of money to spend on real estate”.

FINSUM: We think this trend will be both long-term and very bullish for markets like south Florida and other sizable metropolitan areas in low tax states . The high tax states might face a reckoning, especially those without a major metropolitan area to suck in residents (e.g. Oregon).