(New York)

A new study out of Harvard makes a very interesting point about US home prices. While real estate prices have seen a strong and steady rise since the bottoms of the Crisis, and prices in many markets seem very lofty, the truth is that the cost of owning a home actually hasn’t risen for the last thirty years. How is that possible? The answer is that while home prices have risen compared to income, interest rates have also fallen strongly, meaning the monthly mortgage payment it costs to actually own a home has remained pretty much flat sine 1987 (on an inflation-adjusted basis).

FINSUM: So this is a good point, but the reality is that the monthly payment does not account for the huge down payment that families now need to come up with (which they did not back when interest rates were at 12%).

(Beijing)

With the US-led tariffs battle in full swing, Americans tend to focus on how such tariffs are affecting our own country. However, to understand how things may play out, we need to see what is happening on the other side. While US markets have taken a shallow hit from the potential trade war, Chinese shares are plummeting, and a very near to a bear market. Both the country’s Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes are at almost a 19% loss from their peak in January, just a hair off the 20% loss that qualifies as a bear market. According to one Chinese securities analyst, “It’s mainly the trade war that has created such panic in the market because the latest developments have surpassed the expectations of many people in China”.

FINSUM: We wonder how much this kind of market pressure will compel the Chinese government to give in to some of the US’ demands? The counter point to that view is that since the country is not a democracy, the government doesn’t really have to worry all that much if people are upset. That is a very blunt view of the situation, but one we think is fundamentally true.

(Washington)

The SEC’s new best interest rule has garnered a great deal of feedback. While on the whole the industry’s reception has been positive, there is some criticism and the view that the rule needs fine tuning, particularly in regards to the use of the “advisor” title. Well, there is apparently also a big loophole in the rule: there is no best interest standard for brokers providing advice to 401(k) sponsors because such sponsors to not fall under the SEC’s definition of a “retail” investor. According to the American Retirement Association, “The commission should clarify that the definition of retail customers include nonprofessional fiduciaries of retirement plans … Otherwise, what you have is an unlevel playing field”.

FINSUM: This seems like something the SEC just missed (especially because the loophole is created by two separate components not fitting well). We suspect this will be amended.

(New York)

Bloomberg has come out with a very interesting piece about how climate change has been affecting the US real estate market. A new study looked at over 3,000 US cities and mapped them by risk to different types of climate change-drive natural disasters, like hurricanes, floods, and wild fires. What the study concluded was quite striking—in all of those categories, the riskiest locations had seen values drop considerably, while the safest locations had seen major gains. For hurricane surge risk, for instance, the “very low risk” locations had seen annual gains of 8.1% between 2007 and 2017, while the “very high risk” locations saw annual losses of 9.1%.

FINSUM: It is interesting to see that Americans have been taking account of these risks for some time even as the national debate over climate change rages on. This could be a major new differentiating factor in real estate.

(Washington)

Despite lots of hopes that a US-led trade war would never come to pass, it is now happening. The US has just imposed $50 bn worth of tariffs on China, which is an escalation of previous metal tariffs, and appears to be a major step towards starting a global trade war. With that in mind, how can one protect their portfolio? While almost all sectors are affected by a trade war, the worst ones will be industrials, autos, and meat producers. Auto companies are likely to be hit very hard by tariffs, so it is best to stay away.

FINSUM: The other thing the market does not seem to be taking into account is that tariffs seem likely to increase US inflation, as companies tend to pass along the increase cost of production onto consumers. That could be an additional downside risk, but one potentially offset by the chance of recession.

(New York)

2017 was great news for the wealth management market, especially for fiduciaries. The total AUM for the RIA market grew an astounding 20% in 2017, and not all of it was because of market gains. Alongside AUM growth, revenue also increased a median of 15.8%. That led to a great deal of new hires, which correspondingly sent profit margins a bit lower. According to one wealth management market analyst at TD Ameritrade, “Clearly firms feel they are producing enough to warrant the added headcount … It’s a very good sign here in terms of firms willing to reinvest in talent”.

FINSUM: The RIA market continues to look very strong as clients keep moving in that direction.

(London)

American investors tend to be focused on US stocks, which over the last several years has been very fortunate. However, there are potentially great discounts to be had overseas. Barron’s has just picked five overseas bargain equities, borrowing from fund manager Dodge & Cox. According to the CIO of Dodge & Cox, “There’s very strong secular growth in some regions outside the U.S. … If you want to participate, you need to own local-market stocks”. The picks are Itau Unibanco Holdings (Brazil), South African media company Naspers, and French drug company Sanofi. They also like DISH Network and Google at home.

FINSUM: So there are obviously great bargains to be had overseas, but we think it takes a real focus to understand the dynamics integral to picking shares in such different markets. Funds that specialize in doing so seem like a good idea.

(Houston)

Oil has been doing absolutely wonderfully this year. The OPEC countries, in harmony with other big oil producers, have successfully worked together to undermine the competitiveness of the oil market and succeeded in boosting prices (okay, that was a little cynical, but true). Now, that dearth of supplies may be about to change, as OPEC is considering a boost of up to 600,000 bpd. There is considerable disagreement over the possible boost, with Iran wanting to maintain the status quo, and Russia wanting to raise it. Saudi Arabia also wants to boost supply, and the highest figure being pushed is an increase of 1.5 mbpd. Open meets on June 22nd.

FINSUM: This could have a considerable impact on the market. Investors in oil and oil-related equities be aware.

(Washington)

After about a thousand steps, the years-long saga of the DOL fiduciary rule is finally over. As of this week, the DOL missed its final deadline to apply for an appeal of its fifth circuit court loss. The DOL had until Wednesday to file for a Supreme Court appeal of the ruling, which vacated the rule back in March. The missed deadline is no surprise, as the Trump-era DOL has completely backtracked from enforcing the rule.

FINSUM: This seems to be the final nail in the coffin. Now it is time to worry about the SEC’s best interest rule, especially with regard to titles.

(Washington)

Brokers rejoice, FINRA is about to makes updating your records simpler and easier. In an effort to reduce the compliance burden and costs, FINRA is reforming its CRD system. The WebCRD interface will see an overhaul, which should make things easier for brokers. According to FINRA president Cook, “The transformation will allow FINRA to develop systems that help firms effectively maintain compliance programs and reduce compliance costs, while continuing to operate and enhance BrokerCheck as an essential tool for investors”.

FINSUM: The update is pretty short on details at the moment, but at least FINRA is trying to reduce the regulatory burden.