(New York)

Investors need to take notice, a bear market is arriving. Trade wars and rising rates have been plaguing equity markets, and US indices seem to have already seen their peaks. But while the US market is still holding on, investors need to take notice that both China and emerging markets are both flirting with bear markets, with China crossing into one this week. The threat of a trade war and a strengthening Dollar are both weighing on international stocks, and are threatening to crimp economic output. Morgan Stanley is warning of a big drop in the MSCI emerging markets index. According to the Bank’s strategy team, “This is a dangerous market … We now think we’re heading to an outright bear market”.

FINSUM: If there is a global recession coming, it seems like one that will start overseas and filter back to the US. The big question is whether that recession will lead to major asset meltdowns, such as in corporate debt.