(Washington)

The DOL rule took years, seemingly millennia, to be completely worked out (and it still wasn’t good ha), and many advisors are wondering how long it might take the SEC to get to a final iteration of its pseudo-fiduciary rule. Well, the SEC has not laid out a formal schedule yet, but SEC chief Clayton said this week that he will make sure the SEC is “not going to take forever”. Many have called for the SEC to extend the comment period on the new rule past its August 7th closing date, but the SEC has not said whether it will do so.

FINSUM: We are pleased with how quickly the SEC got its first iteration of its new rule out. We hope they keep the pace up to eliminate all the regulatory limbo in which the industry might find itself.

(New York)

Think about the financial advisor as you conceive it: an entrepreneurial professional driven by an eat-what-you-kill paradigm. For decades that has been the model, but it appears to be changing quickly. In what Barron’s calls the rise of the “advisor zombie”, many advisors are being moved to basic salary and bonus models. Since firms are exiting the broker protocol, it is becoming easier for them to lock advisors in place, and thus constrain their pay, leaving more margin for firms. The model attempts to make clients loyal to firms rather than advisors, much like a branch banker.

FINSUM: This is certainly a dystopian viewpoint, but if you take a look at changes going on in the industry, it looks like a pretty reasonable view.

(Washington)

Earlier this week it was former NYC mayor, and current Trump lawyer, Rudy Giuliani saying it. Now it is the president himself. Earlier this week, Trump confirmed on Twitter that “he has the absolute right to pardon himself”. However, after affirming his right, he followed up by saying “but why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong?”.

FINSUM: The amazing thing about that statement is it may very well be true given the broad pardoning powers of the US presidential office. However, doing so would go against the fabric of the American checks and balances system and would almost certainly get Trump impeached. We understand he is frustrated by the investigation, but he needs to walk a fine line.

(San Francisco)

Investors in Facebook, and possibly tech more broadly, need to be worried. New news has broke which says that Facebook has been sharing its data with China. The company has been sharing data with device makers like Huawei, among others. The news comes just at a time when fury over Facebook’s data policies have caused a global uproar among the public. According to the Financial Times, “Facebook shared user data including information on religious and political leanings with the device makers, and personal data collected from users who had asked for it not to be shared with third parties”.

FINSUM: We don’t know if there are legal ramifications for this, but it will certainly only add weight to the current push to subject the tech industry to greater regulation.

(Houston)

Oil has been doing very well of late. All of our readers have probably noticed it at the pump. Brent crude is currently trading around the $80 per barrel market, and all parts of the oil sector are excited after a multi-year slump. However, the market has two big problems on its hands. The first is China’s secretive oil reserves, which could be used to push prices down if the Chinese start pushing their oil into the market. Secondly, The US oil industry wants to increase output significantly and has asked OPEC for a 1mbd hike, which would once again lead to an oversupplied market.

FINSUM: We acknowledge that oil is doing well, but we are worried it will be hard to maintain current pricing because it basically relies on an oligopoly structure (cooperation on price) which we don’t think is ultimately tenable.

(Beijing)

It looks like Trump’s efforts to put pressure on China over trade might be paying off. In what we think looks like a significant concession, Beijing has just offered to buy an extra $70 bn of US goods if Trump agrees not to impose the tariffs he has threatened. Trump has said he wants China to cut its trade surplus with the US by $200 bn. The $70 bn would mostly go to US agricultural products, energy, and manufactured goods.

FINSUM: China just made an offer that amounts to over 33% of what Trump demanded. That seems like a pretty good step.

(New York)

Safe 5% yields sound very enticing right now don’t they? Well, they are actually not as hard to find as you think if you take a broader perspective. That perspective is to look at standard municipal bonds and examine their real-world yields, or how they compare to taxable bonds. For instance, for a couple living in California with a $250k per year income, a municipal bond yielding 3.0% is equivalent to a taxable bond yielding a whopping 5.8%. This is because of the new tax system brought in by Republicans. One muni expert comments that “I would argue that munis are more attractive than they’ve ever been because, with the loss of various deductions, including SALT, one’s taxable income is higher than it’s ever been”.

FINSUM: This is a very good insight and one to which HNW individuals and advisors need to pay attention. Once investors really come around to this, it could spark a muni bond run.

(New York)

One of the key story lines that has been driving global equities gains over the last year and a half is that economic growth has finally returned to all corners of the world. Yet just as that story was becoming very believable, it is starting to fade. Global benchmarks for measuring growth have fallen undeniably since January, especially in Europe, and inflation is cooling in developed economies, both signs that the boom in expansion might have come to an end. Everything from shipping costs to copper prices have fallen as demand has waned.

FINSUM: Are we headed towards a global recession? It is always hard to forecast, but it seems as though we may be.

(Washington)

Donald Trump’s lawyer, none other than former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, said on the record very recently that Trump has the power to pardon himself. Despite that power, though, Giuliani says Trump likely won’t do so as it would probably lead to immediate impeachment. The statement falls in line with Trump’s argument that he cannot be charged with obstruction of justice because “he could, if he wished, terminate the inquiry, or even exercise his power to pardon if he so desired” (quote form Trump’s legal team) based on the far-reaching pardoning powers of the US presidency.

FINSUM: From a legal perspective this is a quite an interesting question. But given the obvious political perils involved in exercising this theoretical power, we suspect this might be a moot point (but maybe not).

(New York)

US Treasuries took a nose dive last week on fears over Italy. They fell from well over 3.1% to well under 2.9% very quickly. However, don’t get used to those levels. The reason why is that the underlying economy is fundamentally solid, with wages and jobs strong, growth solid, and corporate tax cuts likely to give a boost. The Fed also seems likely to continue hiking, even if only slowly.

FINSUM: All these reasons aside, our own view is that yields were on a solidly rising path until the Italy issue. Since we seen that as only a temporary problem (for global markets), we suspect bond investors will regain their views.