(Houston)

Markets have been turbulent over the last month but overall 2021 couldn’t be…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Washington)

While dancing around the subjects for the past couple of years, the chief financial regulators have finally announced a regulation…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Boston)

Many of the major players in Biotechnology are seeing their stocks soar…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

On the surface, the last few weeks could not have gone better. Vaccinations are up, inflation worries are down, economic indicators are surging, and earnings are great. This has led to a nice relief rally after a rough later winter/early spring. However, the reality is that the summer may again be a tough time for markets. The reason why—a lot of good news is fully priced in, but bad news no longer is. Think about it: if an incredible piece of news came out today, do you think the market would react as strongly as if a very bad piece of news came out? Your gut is probably telling you the latter would have a much stronger response.

FINSUM: We have to agree that the market has gotten a lot of relief from recent news. But really, it would only take one really bad inflation report to send volatility spiking.

(New York)

Yields did something very alarming today: they shot up to their highest level in two weeks as a kick-off to summer trading. Yield rises were the epicenter of all the volatility a couple of months ago, and have been the key driver of stock returns as they are the primary asset for pricing inflation risk. So the big question is where will they go from here?

FINSUM: Inflation fears have calmed, but commodities prices are still keeping those worries alive. The Fed seems to hold the key to the whole issue. As long as it walks the line that inflation is transitory, and data at least marginally backs that up, the market will be fine. But if we get a couple suspect reports, and a bad headline or two, all exacerbated by an off-the-cuff Fed remark, we could easily stumble into a correction.

Tech has been hit hard the past few weeks over rising inflation concerns and what that means for companies with ether cash flows…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

Fund managers are turning to an unusual place to lead the charge in ESG…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

One of China’s Titans is Primed to Rally

Alibaba is one of the largest technology companies in China and its stock has been off nearly 35%…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

Inflation worries may have surged this Spring, but that has not helped real yields. When you compare the yields of stocks and bonds versus inflation, the truth is that real yields have turned negative. It is unusual for the S&P 500 to have a negative yield, which is currently at -0.81%. That is slightly better than 10-year Treasuries’ real yield of -0.87%. This has usually spelled trouble historically. Going back to 1970, there has only been one instance when the market did not decline at least 32% in the two years following the point at which yields went negative.

FINSUM: This is a pretty scary statistic, but then again, most historical contexts don’t involve a pandemic-induced country-wide shutdown and unprecedented government stimulus.

(Houston)

Environmentally, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG) investing is getting all of the attention from both news outlets and traders, but some investors think too much attention is being diverted from fossil fuels. They argue that oil is now a sin stock, where many investors stay away because of the nature of the good (e.g. alcohol, defense, gambling, and tobacco). Sin stocks traditionally outpace the market, under the wisdom that they remain perpetual value stocks because socially conscious investors stay away, and oil ETFs are starting to outperform renewable ETFs. In reality, sin stocks don’t get their boost from value but rather higher operating margins, and oil is one of the most competitive with low to negative margins depending on how far upstream the extraction is. While oil is moving out of environmental favor it isn’t quite a sin stock yet because it also lacks the capital intensity that is common to sin stocks.

FINSUM: There are a lot of reasons to be bullish on oil right now, but being sin stock probably isn’t one. Oil can still be a value play even if that’s not how sin stocks make their name.