Displaying items by tag: Growth

The US economy surprised expectations in 2024 by maintaining steady growth despite elevated interest rates, a cooling labor market, and political uncertainty tied to the presidential election. It outpaced other Group of Seven nations, with household spending driving much of this resilience. 

Wage growth outstripped inflation, and record household wealth bolstered consumer confidence, even as Americans depleted pandemic-era savings. 

However, challenges loomed: inflation proved stubborn, borrowing costs strained housing and manufacturing, and delinquencies rose among credit-dependent consumers. Labor market signals also hinted at strain, with hiring slowing, job openings shrinking, and unemployment rates ticking up. 

Finsum: While the Federal Reserve began easing rates later in the year, its cautious stance underscores the delicate balance needed to sustain growth amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Blackstone Inc. predicts the private credit market could expand to $30 trillion, driven by infrastructure financing and pensions. Currently, private debt stands at $1.7 trillion, primarily funding private equity, but Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at Blackstone, views this as just a fraction of the opportunity. 

Private lenders are expected to take market share from banks, which now dominate the asset-based credit sector, with Blackstone focusing on areas like energy transition, digital infrastructure, and real estate. 

Pension and sovereign wealth funds are also taking notice, potentially increasing their private debt allocations. Blackstone expects significant future growth in sectors like data centers, where investments could top $1 trillion over five years. 

Finsum: While private equity has struggled to secure its footing in the same way private debt has, this expansion looks very stable. 

Private equity giants are increasingly turning to hands-on management of the companies they own as financial strategies alone are no longer sufficient. With rising interest rates and a slowdown in the deals market, firms like Goldman Sachs and Blackstone are bringing in seasoned industry veterans to boost operational performance. 

This shift focuses on enhancing profitability through measures like improving margins and increasing cash flow, rather than relying on the traditional method of multiple expansion. 

Private equity firms are also extending the holding periods of their investments, driven by the need to deliver returns to investors amidst a tougher economic climate. Companies are placing a stronger emphasis on building long-term strategic growth plans. 

Finsum: As interest rates and inflation rise, private equity is evolving to emphasize deeper involvement in company operations rather than relying solely on financial solutions.

While stock selection often gets the most attention, the true driver of portfolio performance is typically asset allocation, with around 90% of variability linked to how investments are distributed across asset classes. Different asset classes perform well under different economic conditions—stocks might excel in growth periods, while bonds provide stability during downturns. 

Goldman Sachs has analyzed various economic scenarios to suggest optimal asset mixes for maximizing risk-adjusted returns over the next decade. For sluggish growth or stagflation, they recommend a heavier allocation to Treasury bonds and real assets, while minimizing exposure to growth stocks. 

In a scenario of strong growth and low inflation, the maximum allocation to stocks should still be capped around 70%. Ultimately, a diversified mix, including US Treasuries, remains crucial regardless of the economic outlook.

Finsum: Keep in mind the relative risk profiles of these asset classes when constructing your portfolio. 

Citizens Financial Group is recruiting wealth advisors from larger firms, prioritizing advisors' character and commitment to client service over their previous affiliations. Thomas Metzger, the firm's senior vice president of private wealth management, has led this effort, bringing in significant teams from JPMorgan. 

These recruits include a 12-person team from San Francisco with over $5 billion in assets and a four-person team from Boston with about $1 billion in assets, both previously from First Republic Bank. The collapse of First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank in early 2023 created opportunities for Citizens to expand its wealth management operations rapidly. 

Citizens has opened new private wealth offices in major locations and aims to offer comprehensive, integrated services under one roof to minimize frustration points advisors face at larger firms. The bank plans to continue its growth by adding more advisor teams throughout the year.

Finsum: Firms are capitalizing on last years financial turmoil and its might be time to take advantage as well.