Displaying items by tag: Growth
There is a growing sentiment to regulate the technology sector, and that push isn’t isolated to just the U.S., the rest of Europe is planning on changing regulations as well. However, despite this potential crackdown on the fastest growing sector for over two decades, Morgan Stanley remains bullish on many digital advertising companies like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Snap, and Pinterest. While Morgan Stanley says there is a bear case, the base case is quite positive for tech companies and the odds of extremely tight regulation cracking down are long. The worst case scenario would be if the U.S. adopted some Euro area approaches to regulation, and whistleblowers would become commonplace in tech.
FINSUM: The moderate regulation scenario is already priced into tech stocks in the U.S. so unless Congress fully revamps its regulation tech stock looks to be bullish.
Tech stocks had a big fall this week, but it more importantly it was the concentration of tech stocks that hedge funds loaded up on that took the biggest tumble. For instance, Farfetch Ltd. and Snowflake Inc. faced their largest drops since March. Hedge funds have been bullish on growth stocks and the high value/low income stocks set record holdings dating back to 2002. Driving tech’s downfall are rate hikes being priced into yields and undermining stocks hinging on future cash flows, like tech.
FINSUM: Tech stocks are more fragile than ever because profits are dwindling after the pandemic boost, and future rate hikes could cause serious tech blowback.
The post-pandemic stable recovery is starting to teeter, and threats to the portfolio are starting to creep in. Investors are now actively turning bearish and moving into cyclical value plays, while others remain optimistic that growth stocks are still the best option. The question isn’t about the future but rather what exposure has the least risk and the best upside in the current environment. The O’Shares Global Internet Giants Index ETF (OGIG) may be an opportunity to invest in growth at a great value.
Riding the Growth-Value Line
OGIG is a rules-based ETF that tracks both quality/value characteristics in internet companies. These companies need to include a majority share of their revenue from either internet commerce or technology services that underpin e-commerce. Internet companies are an obvious signal for growth and OGIG’s biggest holdings include Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from the US; and Tencent, Alibaba Group, and Shopify* from abroad. In addition to growth, the fund optimizes on the most important driver of value: revenue. Over the last three years, revenue is one of the best predictors of returns. As the first quartile of technology stocks nearly doubled the annualized return of the quartile below. Part of what makes this fund so attractive is that the revenue is a prop against future headwinds, but more on that later.
Since the onset of the pandemic, stocks have performed well. The S&P 500** has had a pure return of 94.4% since bottoming out on March 20, 2020 through 9/15/2020, but OGIG has drastically outpaced it. Growing at 153% since that same date, OGIG even dwarfs competitors like the Nasdaq 100 by over 20 percentage points. The primary reason for that is the revenue value factor. This drives a 20% discount in relative price-to-sales ratio compared to the Nasdaq 100 vs. the 3-year average. The other driver is exposure to the fastest-growing technology companies globally in emerging markets, China, and Canada.
The Future Landscape
Investors are worried about the spreading delta variant, weak economic growth, and future inflation, but all of these risks are of little concern for OGIG. E-commerce is driving the success of OGIG, which would only be fueled by a pick-up in the delta variant and has institutionalized itself in the American economy in a return to normal. Weak economic growth is a concern for non-revenue generating companies, but robust revenue generators outpace competitors in tough economic times. Meanwhile it’s the hyper-growth prospects that are concerned about future inflation as they have no current revenue. And besides, the latest inflation data suggests Powell is right about inflation being transitory.
Finally, regulation in China started to spike in July, but the lion’s share of that regulation is already passed. Historically, China has been quick to redact any policies that are a hindrance to its future growth. In fact, China’s regulation is actually providing a solid landscape for the fast-growing tech sector with more assurances moving forward.
Grow and protect with the O’Shares Global Internet Giant ETF.
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[*] Click here to view the funds top 10 holdings.
S&P 500: The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.
NASDAQ-100 Total Return Index: The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.
Relative Price/Sales Ratio (P/S): The price-to-sales ratio is a valuation ratio that compares a company’s stock price to its revenues.
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View the standardized performance for OGIG. Expense ratio: 0.48%
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Please note that very strong performance may be due to unusually favorable conditions that are likely not sustainable.
The Fed is beginning to talk tapering and that has sent treasury yields spiking to 3-month highs (since before delta was spreading rapidly). The treasury yield spike has sent Growth stocks, such as in the technology sector, tumbling. Investors caught in the middle have flocked to value stocks, such as energy and financials. These stocks have cyclical reopening qualities and investors are singing the same reflationary trade song from back in May. However, growth doesn’t look quite as sluggish, and this might keep these stocks rolling a bit longer. Supply side factors in energy in particular will keep value strong beyond interest rates falling or inflation being more than transitory.
FINSUM: Value needs this middle zone of moderate inflation and moderate growth. If either fall off or pick up too much it could push investors back into growth or push the whole market down!