Friday, 08 March 2024 05:06

Will Value Outperform Growth in 2024

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Growth has consistently outperformed value since the Great Recession. For a while, this was attributed to the Fed’s dovish policies, however this has now continued even during this period of substantially higher rates. 

 

There are some indications that investors should consider rebalancing between value and growth to maintain diversification, since they may be overexposed following growth’s significant outperformance over the past year. In reality, the opposite is happening as inflows are heavily skewed towards technology. 

 

Over the past year, net inflows into technology ETFs amounted to $18 billion which is nearly equivalent to net outflows in all other sector ETFs. This is also exacerbated by the massive size of the largest 7 technology companies which have become dominant in market-cap weighted indices. 

 

Another reason to consider value is that it would likely outperform in adverse market conditions given lower multiples and less froth. This could be a prudent choice for investors who are on the sidelines but wary of risks like a recession or inflation. 

 

Additionally, value tends to do well following periods of froth in markets. For instance, value outperformed in the years following the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the frenzy in equity markets during the pandemic. If valuations revert to the mean, then it could also set the stage for a value renaissance. During these periods, the best performing stocks tend to produce high levels of free cash flow relative to their market caps while maintaining strong balance sheets. 


Finsum: Value underperformed growth by a significant degree over the past year, continuing the prevailing trend of the last decade. Here’s why investors should consider increasing exposure to value ETFs. 

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