Displaying items by tag: international

Global stock markets declined this week as investors braced for new U.S. tariffs that have heightened recession fears. The S&P 500 briefly fell into correction territory before rebounding, but it still posted its worst quarter since 2022. 

The uncertainty surrounding trade policy pushed the CBOE Volatility Index higher and drove investors toward safe-haven assets like gold, which reached a record high above $3,100 an ounce. 

Asian and European markets also struggled, with automakers hit particularly hard after Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts. Meanwhile, CoreWeave's stock tumbled after its IPO, and Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison declined as a Chinese regulatory review delayed a major ports deal.

Finsum: Investors are flocking to bonds for any chance of relief, but this could be the time to buy on the bottom of the market if Trump pulls the rug on tariffs once again. 

Global stocks are anticipated to recover from recent market turmoil and gain modestly in the coming months, driven by expectations of forthcoming interest rate cuts by major central banks, according to a Reuters poll of over 150 equity strategists.

Despite a sharp decline in early August due to the unwinding of leveraged positions and weaker U.S. jobs data, the MSCI global index has regained most of its losses, now up 14% for the year. Analysts expect corporate earnings to outperform in local markets, supporting further growth in key equity indices, though at a slower pace compared to last year. 

While 13 of 15 major indices are forecasted to post single-digit gains by year-end, with no outright global correction anticipated, the pace of gains in 2024 is expected to moderate, reflecting a tempered outlook amidst a resilient macroeconomic picture.

Finsum: We’ll monitor how exchange rates fluctuate as inflation normalizes across countries. 

Macro conditions are currently tumultuous, with inflation rates surprising on the low end and unemployment figures exceeding expectations. This uncertainty makes it a challenging time for investors, as the debate continues over whether positive news is beneficial for markets. 

U.S. equities are trading at high levels, prompting louder calls for caution and diversification. Asset managers, like BlackRock and State Street, are adjusting their model portfolio strategies, with BlackRock leaning into U.S. growth and quality fixed income, while State Street is increasing international equity exposure. 

These adjustments to model portfolios reflect a broader trend toward diversification amidst uncertain economic signals. As we move forward, monitoring these strategies can provide insights into navigating the market's complexities.

Finsum: As models recalibrate maybe its time to do the same in your own portfolio, but keep in mind this is a natural perk of active funds.

Value investing has underperformed over the last 15 years. Flows have followed this performance, with allocators favoring growth strategies. As a result, the number of practitioners of pure value investing has dwindled, especially in the US. Further, many are questioning, whether, it’s still a viable strategy.

There was some optimism that a period of higher interest rates and economic growth would revitalize value stocks especially following the speculative surge of many growth stocks in 2021. However, this turned out to be fleeting as the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) in 2023 sent many growth stocks to new, all-time highs, undoing value’s brief period of outperformance. 

However, the story is much different from an international perspective, where value stocks have been outperforming for a meaningful period. This lends credence to the argument that value’s underperformance is more about the US and technological disruptions than a change in how markets operate. Disruptive technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence have allowed a handful of companies in the US to grow to unprecedented scale, which has distorted the growth vs. value dynamic. 

History also shows that markets adapt to these technologies quite rapidly. Over time, margins and profits compress. The long-term benefits of the technology will be realized by the companies that are able to successfully implement the technology to operate more efficiently. 

Finsum: Value investing has underperformed by a significant degree over the past couple of decades. Yet, it’s a different story from an international perspective. 

2024 has proven to be a much more challenging year for financial markets than 2023. Entering the year, the consensus was that the economy would continue to weaken, inflation would keep trending lower, and the Fed would be proactive and aggressive in cutting rates. 

Clearly, this has not happened. Amid this new paradigm, allocators are understandably looking to make appropriate adjustments to portfolios. Here’s why they should consider increasing exposure to active strategies.  

With fixed income, active investing can allow for precise exposure to a specific theme. For instance, those who don’t believe that inflation will keep trending lower may want to have higher exposure to short-duration debt. Another benefit is that active managers are able to quickly change strategies depending on how events develop, which makes them particularly useful in the current environment. This means that holdings can be optimized for the current environment of ‘higher for longer, but then managers can quickly pivot once the Fed actually starts cutting rates.

Active strategies can also be useful in other asset classes, such as international equities, which currently appeal to many investors due to favorable valuations relative to US equities. With active management, there is more focus on bottom-up, fundamental-focused analysis, which can result in more alpha in less efficient markets. Further, it can also lead to more diversification and risk management than is typically found with passive investing.

Finsum: The first quarter of 2024 has had several unexpected developments. Here’s why allocators should consider active management to navigate this tricky environment.