Economy

(New York)

While markets have calmed down somewhat from December’s chaos, there are still worries over the domestic and global economy. Part of those worries is the real estate market, which continues to sink into a notable slump that could either prove a blip or an important leading indicator. December homes sales fell 6.4% from the previous month and a whopping 10%+ from last December. The market is suffering from significantly elevated mortgage rates and a lack of starter homes. The big fall in sales is counterintuitive because of the currently strong labor market.


FINSUM: The housing market reflects interest rate rises in a very pure way. The big question is whether this is a leading indicator or a slowdown that is idiosyncratic to the sector. To be honest, we think it is some of both.

(New York)

If you think the real estate market is bad now, just wait. That is the argument from James Stack of InvesTech Research. Stack accurately called the last housing crisis and also forecast the slowdown in 2018. Now he is saying that 2019 is going to be the worst year for a long time. “Expect home sales to continue on a downward trend in the next 12-plus months. And there’s a significant downside risk to housing prices if a recession takes hold”, says Stack. He does admit that it is too hard to say if housing is currently in a bubble, but that prices are very likely to fall.


FINSUM: Mortgage rates have risen sharply and prices are quite elevated, so it is no wonder prices have fallen. However, real estate hasn’t seen the exuberance it did pre-Crisis, so we do not think this will be a meltdown by any means.

(New York)

Real estate has been the metaphorical whipping boy of data releases this year. The market has been largely slumping for months, with home sales mostly slowing as rates rose. Now more data has been released, and despite generally bearish sentiment, the numbers still surprised to the downside. In the month of November, pending US home sales felling a whopping 7.7% from a year previously. To be clear, pending sales mean signed contracts to buy homes (closings are usually 45 days later), which mean they are a good leading indicator.


FINSUM: Is it any wonder that four rate hikes this year have hurt the housing market? The question is whether the same will happen to the economy and real estate is just showing the effects first.

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