Eq: Dev ex-US
If you look at it from the outside, a second Brexit referendum has had the feeling of inevitably for at least a year now. The chaos and unexpected fallout from the fraught negotiations between the EU and UK have made it seem likely that the British people would need to settle the matter with another vote. That expectation is now looking likely to turn into a reality as Britain’s opposition party, Labour is backing a plan to bring forward a second vote.
FINSUM: In our mind, the claims that holding a second vote is undemocratic are ridiculous. On the one hand, no voter back in 2016 could have known how this Brexit mess would actually progress, which means the people should get a second chance to decide on the deal at hand. On the other, how can a whole nation voting on an issue ever be considered undemocratic?
So far Brexit has been the complete mess everyone expected. The whole deal looks like it is hurdling towards a chaotic no-deal departure. Parliament looks very likely to reject PM May’s deal, a vote on which she has delayed in order to save face. However, the EU has just extended a major olive branch by virtue of its judiciary. The top EU court just ruled that the UK can unilaterally back out of Brexit at any time despite the fact that they have formally enacted Article 50, or the official leaving process from the EU.
FINSUM: All they have to do is hold a Parliamentary vote or second referendum and this whole mess would be over. IT is a long way from something that simple happening.
The Brexit situation seems to be getting worse and worse (or maybe better and better, depending on where you stand). In an embarrassing defeat, PM Theresa May just lost a Parliamentary vote regarding her Brexit deal which now gives Parliament the right to vote on any final deal. Parliament also ordered her government to release the legal advice they had received regarding the departure from the EU, an unorthodox move that shows a lack of faith in the PM.
FINSUM: What this means is that Parliament now essentially has the right to block Brexit, or call for a second referendum. Sterling plummeted on the news.
Pretty much since the day it happened, the prospect of a second Brexit referendum has loomed large. Now, almost 2.5 years since the initial vote, it is becoming closer to reality. PM May’s universally panned Brexit deal with the EU is adding weight to efforts to hold another vote. A conservative MP (same party as Theresa May) has proposed a new vote in May, saying it would only take 22 weeks to prepare. The vote would have three options—stay in the EU, accept the May plan, or leave without a deal.
FINSUM: Critics of a second referendum argue that it is undemocratic to not abide the first vote. However, the action of leaving the EU is unprecedented, and the deal that Britain could get from the EU was completely unknown, so in our view, holding second referendum to decide on the actual terms is actually the most democratic option.
Just a couple of days ago it seemed like the UK and EU were on the verge of coming to an agreement over Brexit. Now, just 48 hour later, a deal actually seems further away than it ever has. Reviewing UK headlines, the irony of PM May’s proposed deal is that it did what no one else has been able to—unite Britain. However, the unity is driven by shared hatred from all sides over what a terrible agreement the government has proposed. Numerous government ministers have resigned on the back of the proposal.
FINSUM: The pushback to this deal has been more than anyone would have anticipated. A no-deal Brexit looks increasingly likely.
The Brexit deal has taken so long to figure out that it mostly seemed hopeless. Markets were legitimately pricing in the chances of a no-deal Brexit. Now, the EU and UK have announced they have come to a provisional agreement. While that is cause for some relief, it is very far from a done deal as both the UK and European Parliaments need to endorse the agreement. The UK side in particular may be tricky as PM Theresa May needs to rally an extremely factionalized government behind her.
FINSUM: This could go many ways, but we think either everything will just fall into place quietly, or there will be major fireworks