Eq: Dev ex-US

(London)

The battle over Brexit has been brewing for nine months now, and the outcome seems just as unclear as immediately after the vote, as the UK has not struck any deal with the EU and it is even unsure if it wants to. However, one aspect of the vote has now been clarified. Britain will trigger “Article 50”—the legal procedure for leaving the EU—on March 29th. The date came from a spokesman representing PM Theresa May. The official triggering will be followed by two years of negotiations with the EU.


FINSUM: It looks like it is really happening. However, there is a still a battle going on over whether it is reversible or not.

Source: Bloomberg

(London)

Get ready for a nasty fight to start in Britain. Scotland voted strongly in favor of staying in last year’s Brexit referendum, and this week the country formally requested permission from the UK to hold its own independence referendum late next year before the UK triggers its exit from the EU. However, the UK has rejected the request, saying no referendum can be held until at least early 2019—a date after the UK’s exit from the EU has been finalized. That means Scotland would not have a chance to decide its fate before being carried out of the EU by the UK. A leader of Scotland’s SNP party commented “Scotland’s referendum is going to happen and no UK prime minister should dare to stand in the way of Scotland’s democracy”.


FINSUM: This is going to get very ugly before any solution is hammered out. It is not inconceivable that Scotland will simply hold this on their own and then appeal to the EU for membership. Uncharted waters.

Source: Financial Times

(Amsterdam)

American investors don’t pay much attention to Holland, and perhaps rightfully so—the country’s affairs seem to have little impact on US life or markets. However, that could change soon as Dutch voters head to the polls today in a vote that could rock the EU. Dutch far-right populist Geert Wilders may win the election on a platform than has included banning the Koran and closing mosques. The vote is seen as the second (following Brexit) in a string of elections that could decide the fate of the EU. France will vote in a couple months and Germany in September.


FINSUM: If Wilders wins there will be a populist in power in a major European country which is at the heart of the EU. If France follows the whole project could crumble.

Source: Financial Times

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