Eq: Dev ex-US
While all eyes are on Italy and its political/markets crisis, the answer to the really scary question—will the Eurozone and EU fall apart—might lay in Spain. Italy is going to go down the road it chooses, but the big consternation is really about whether others will follow. To see the extent of the crisis, one needs to follow Spain, which will be holding a no confidence vote for its PM on Friday, with socialists likely to take over in his party’s absence.
FINSUM: If Italy falls, the next domino seems likely to be Spain. If the pair indicate they are leaving the Euro we will probably have a financial crisis unfold.
For those who consider themselves students of the market, yesterday was a real whopper. Short-term bond yields can usually be seen as a proxy for cash. But in a truly astonishing move, Italian two-year yields rose an amazing 1.5 percentage points yesterday (150 bp) to 2.4%. By comparison, other southern European yields, such as Spain, moved just 12 bp. Markets are worried about a massive Italian default, and possibly the redenomination of bonds into Lira.
FINSUM: When you get right down to it the panic here is not just about a default, but about a breakup of the Euro. We have always said it would be Italy to leave first, and the major question is whether others would join them when that happened.
This is Europe week for financial markets. Italy is currently engulfed in a political, and increasingly markets, crisis. Now the panic and political gloom is spreading to Spain. The country’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, is set to face a no confidence vote and the outcome is very uncertain. Accordingly, Spain’s sovereign yields have been rising alongside Italy’s. The no confidence vote will be held on Friday and comes following a ruling of corruption against the center-right party of which Rajoy is leader.
FINSUM: Southern Europe is back in the news this week after a six-year hiatus. We don’t think anything major will be caused by Spain, but the Italian situation is very dicey.
We do not cover too much European news. This is mostly because our readers don’t pay much attention when we do. However, we thought the crisis going on in Italy warranted special attention. Stocks are plummeting and bond yields soaring on the back of a political uproar over the future of leadership. In particular, two big parties (i.e. the Five Star Movement and the League) who are leading in the polls both propose lavish tax cuts and spending increases which look on the surface to possibly lead Italy to a default, which has bond investors and the European establishment worried.
FINSUM: We feel for Italy, we really do. We think the country has really been crippled by the Euro and now there is no easy way out. We expect positions will moderate, but this could cause some volatility.
For the first time in half a century, Sweden is seriously prepping its country for the possibility of war. Growing national anxiety over the threat of Russia has led the government to send out 4.7m information pamphlets to all households informing them of what to do in the event of war. “All of society needs to be prepared for conflict, not just the military. We haven’t been using words such as total defence or high alert for 25-30 years or more. So the knowledge among citizens is very low”, says the government. The country is also considering whether it should join NATO.
FINSUM: The Baltics and Scandinavia are particularly exposed to possible Russian military aggression, so it makes sense they are nervous.
While it has largely faded from the American consciousness, the fallout over 2016’s Brexit vote has been nothing short of an absolute mess. The negotiations for departure have finally made a little progress, but are plagued by internecine warfare at every level. Now, a push for a second referendum, which could refute the first, is gaining traction. Former PM Tony Blair is urging his liberal party to back a second vote. Blair and Liberals believe that leaving the EU is not the solution that will fix the worries of Leave voters.
FINSUM: We think this situation only has upside for investors. If the UK reversed its positon, it would lead to a rally in the Euro and Pound and be bullish for most asset classes.