Eq: Dev ex-US

(London)

Just a couple of days ago it seemed like the UK and EU were on the verge of coming to an agreement over Brexit. Now, just 48 hour later, a deal actually seems further away than it ever has. Reviewing UK headlines, the irony of PM May’s proposed deal is that it did what no one else has been able to—unite Britain. However, the unity is driven by shared hatred from all sides over what a terrible agreement the government has proposed. Numerous government ministers have resigned on the back of the proposal.


FINSUM: The pushback to this deal has been more than anyone would have anticipated. A no-deal Brexit looks increasingly likely.

(London)

The Brexit deal has taken so long to figure out that it mostly seemed hopeless. Markets were legitimately pricing in the chances of a no-deal Brexit. Now, the EU and UK have announced they have come to a provisional agreement. While that is cause for some relief, it is very far from a done deal as both the UK and European Parliaments need to endorse the agreement. The UK side in particular may be tricky as PM Theresa May needs to rally an extremely factionalized government behind her.


FINSUM: This could go many ways, but we think either everything will just fall into place quietly, or there will be major fireworks

(Berlin)

In what could be a sign of a looming recession in Western countries, the EU just released its worst GDP figures in four years. The third quarter produced just 1.7% growth across the EU, the worst number in four years. The pace slowed from the second quarter, when growth was at 2.2%. Oxford Economics commented on the numbers that “‘temporary factors’ have been overplayed to justify the slowdown in the eurozone economy at the start of the year, and that risks are clearly skewed to the downside.” Notably, Italy produced no GDP growth in the third quarter.


FINSUM: We wonder if this is a case of the EU suffering its own problems, or whether it may be systemic and spreading.

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