(New York)

We have been tracking the economy closely looking for signs of the pending recession that everyone is so worried about. Labor market data last week set off a lot of red flags, and now things are on even more unsure footing. New data released shows that inflation rose at just 0.2% in February, representing an annual gain of 1.5% over the last twelve months. The low inflation means the Fed is not rushing, with Fed chief Powell commenting last week “With nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures, the [Federal Open Market] Committee has adopted a patient, wait-and-see approach to considering any alteration in the stance of policy”.

FINSUM: This just seems like a return to the post-Crisis norm that we have had. Maybe we will fall back into the several year mode where growth was 2% and inflation was 1.5%.

(New York)

JP Morgan has plunged headlong into the ETF business since launching its first fund a few years ago. Now the asset manager has debuted a new broad equity tracker than undercuts the market on fees. JP Morgan’s new BetaBuilders US Equity ETF will track mid and large cap US stocks and will seek to track the results of the Morningstar US Target Market Exposure index. The fund costs just 0.02%, or $0.20 for every $1,000 invested per year, one basis point lower than its nearest competitor.

FINSUM: This is a good broad index tracker that costs next to nothing. We expect it will gobble up AUM nicely, but it remains to be seen how well its tracks the index versus competitors, as 1 bp is a tiny margin that could easily be eaten up by performance differences.

(New York)

In one of the most alarming bits of news we have seen about the economy is some time, new data out on the hiring market is showing a bleak trend. The US economy almost failed to produce any new jobs in February, with the total job creation figure at just 20,000. That is a major step down from the hundreds of thousands of new jobs investors had been used to seeing each month. The number is a meteoric fall from the 311,000 created in January, and way under the forecast of 180,000. Following the data, a senior member of the Fed reiterated that the central bank should take no actions on rates until at least the middle of the year.

FINSUM: This is very scary, but there is an important motto to remember here—one point does not a trend make.

(New York)

Where is the best place to find inexpensive income? That is a great question for any portfolio. With that in mind, here is a list of seven funds that can help investors get solid yields via inexpensive ETFs: iShares Core High Dividend ETF (HDV), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD), Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (DJD), Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM), JPMorgan U.S. Dividend ETF (JDIV), Xtrackers MSCI EAFE High Dividend Yield Equity ETF (HDEF). All the funds have expense ratios of between 0.07% and 0.20% and average yields ranging up to around 4%.

FINSUM: These are very core funds with good awareness, but always nice to have them all in one place. We particularly like the Xtrackers internationally-focused income fund because it can help get income from differing rate environments.

(New York)

There are a lot of worrying signs out there right now, but one thing that has bolstered optimism is the strength of the stock market in 2019. That said, there are signs appearing that underlying fundamentals are weakening. In particular, daily moves are shrinking, down from 0.9% in the 4 months leading to February, to just 0.4% in February. The slowdown in trading momentum is not only worrying in its own right, but also because the exact same trend appeared before the falls of February and December 2018.

FINSUM: Our counter argument is that average index moves were quite small through several solid years between 2014 and 2018, so it dos not necessarily indicate a problem.