(Beijing)

One of the big downside risks for the US in its current trade war with China concerns the fact that Beijing owns $1.18 tn of US Treasuries. They also own billions of US mortgage bonds. The big question is whether they will decide to use such ownership as a weapon against the US. For instance, if they sold off large quantities of the bonds, it could send US yields spiking. However, it seems unlikely they would do say for a number of reasons. Firstly, it would hurt the value of their own holdings and all their other Dollar-denominated assets, and it would engender a lot more punitive action from the US. Some consider it the economic equivalent of “mutually assured destruction”.

FINSUM: This is a grave risk for the US because of how it would push up rates all through the economy, but we do not think the trade war has gotten this serious yet.

(Washington)

Advisors all across the country see a major flaw in the SEC rule. Fiduciaries feel they are being completely short-changed by the rule because the way the SEC has drafted it makes advisors and brokers look like identical twins, almost eliminating the distinction from a client’s perspective, according to the “Raise Your Voice” campaign, or a group of advisors pushing against the rule. “The proposed rules depict broker and advisers as essentially the same, like identical twins, but without identical investor protections”, says the spearhead of the campaign, continuing that “The legal, contractual, business and cultural differences dividing brokers and advisers are important and must be clearly stated and explained”. The campaign is encouraging advisors to make their opinions heard while the SEC comment period is open (it closes August 7th).

FINSUM: The SEC tried to make a rule that avoided over-delineating things as part of an effort to avoid loopholes, but this non-standard approach has made many quite angry. We suspect the rule will be edited significantly.

(New York)

Ten-year Treasuries are currently sitting at 2.85%, and according to Barron’s, they aren’t going anywhere. The reason why seems to be three part: a weak inflation outlook, trade war, and the combination of so-so growth and a hawkish Fed. All of this makes investors comfortable with sub-3% yields, and the bonds are being supported by their safe haven nature. Another problem is that US yields are much higher than in other developed countries, such as in Europe, keeping demand for Treasuries high.

FINSUM: We see longer end yields as pretty pinned at the moment. There is not much to be bullish about in the long term economic outlook, so it is hard to see why Treasuries would slide.

(San Francisco)

In what could be a major development for super power Apple, it was reported yesterday that the company was inching towards “Apple Prime”, or some sort of bundled service model similar to Amazon Prime. The company may combine news, magazine articles, and television into a single bundle. Some analysts say Apple needs to increase its service-based revenue, such as that built on monthly subscription fees, in order to continue to expand.

FINSUM: If Apple wants to keep growing at 5%, it needs to add the equivalent of a Fortune 200 company every year. That is a huge revenue goal, and this could be a way to do it.

(New York)

This might be a unique kind of bear market we have on our hands, at least according to Morgan Stanley. The bank’s chief US equity strategist says that this is a “kind of rolling bear market”. Continuing “We are not seeing an ’08 scenario where everything gets hit at once … it’s selectively hitting markets one by one and it’s a rolling sort of correction”. Since that seems to be the case, one good defensive sector to avoid turmoil might be US small caps, which are shielded from trade war and are benefiting from last year’s tax cuts.

FINSUM: We like this description of the kind of correction we are currently in. It might not be a single cataclysmic event that sends the market tumbling, but a series of blows that drives things down continuously.