(New York)

Everyone is feeling it, but no one is sure when it might actually come. The big question is when will this bull market end and finally reverse into the bear market everyone fears. While a solid case could be made that it has already happened, Barron’s says it will be in 2020. The logic is that in 2020 the US will be facing genuinely higher rates, and the short-term benefits from tax cuts will have faded from earnings and the economy.

FINSUM: There is a serious argument to be made that the market may have already peaked, but the idea of a 2020 downturn sounds quite compelling too.

(Washington)

The SEC rule has been a getting a lot of pushback both in the press and by industry commentators. Now, in what only seemed a matter of time, a more formal campaign against the new rule is taking shape. The new “Raise Your Voice” campaign is being organized by a group of RIAs and seeks to unite fiduciaries in a push against the grouping of brokers and advisors in the new rule.

FINSUM: While we do see the SEC’s logic in how it drafted the new rule, brokers and advisors are very different animals and we believe more delineation needs to be drawn between the two.

(Washington)

President Trump has been leading a tumultuous trade war with the US’ largest trading partners. So far his efforts have put tariffs on many different goods, but with metals being the single most notable materials. However, a new interview with the President suggests that the metal tariffs were just an opening act to a much bigger area: autos. In an interview with Fox News yesterday, Trump said “You know, the cars are the big one … We can talk steel, we talk everything. The big thing is cars”. Trump is reportedly planning a 20% tariff on all imported cars as part of a national security measure.

FINSUM: We believe this would be a major line in the sand to the US’ trading partners. Both our Nafta partners and the EU, and maybe Japan, would be furious about this, but it is a major source of leverage for the US.

(San Francisco)

In what is a very odd and counterintuitive change, in just a matter of weeks, both Facebook and Google will be removed from the S&P 500’s “tech” sector. Indexes are changing up their alignments, and Google and Facebook, along with Netflix and Comcast, will all now move to a new group called “communications-services”. The changes are due to take place on September 28th and will force investors to trade in and out of billions of Dollars of holdings to realign their portfolios.

FINSUM: What this means is that the “tech” sector, and in factor no sector, will now be such a dominant component of the S&P 500. It may also reshape trading patterns, and according to some, boost volatility.

(Seattle)

It is no secret that President Trump is not a fan of Amazon. From his campaign right through until the present he has constantly threatened the company. Now he might have some fuel added to his fire. Amazon is currently putting tons of investment into expanding its logistics business, which will ultimately pose a threat to the United States Postal Service. Trump has already said that Amazon abuses USPS, and this will only embolden him. Trump wants USPS to double the rates it charges Amazon.

FINSUM: USPS lost almost $3 bn last year and hasn’t turned a profit in a decade. It does seem like Amazon is getting an unfair subsidy, but then again, it is up to USPS to set its rates.