(Washington)

We have not covered the Trump probe saga in a while, and with good reason—there has been little news. However, that may be about to change. ABC News has run an interview which seems to suggest that Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, may be about to turn on the president as he prioritizes his own family. “I will not be a punching bag as part of anyone’s defence strategy … My wife, my daughter and my son have my first loyalty and always will ... I put family and country first”. He says he is not the villain in this story and does not want to be depicted that way.

FINSUM: Maybe he is about to turn on Trump, but no one knows what cards he may or may not be holding.

(New York)

If you are nervous about markets, you aren’t alone, as tensions seem to be steadily building about the future of equities. While trade war and higher rates dog the market, there are some tangible manifestations of worry starting to appear. High net worth Americans are increasingly focusing only on short-term investments. Only 17% of US millionaires surveyed said they planned to add to their stock exposure over the next year.

FINSUM: Investors still seem to be reeling from February, which saw the fastest peak-to-trough correction since 1950. Couple that with the threat of higher rates and a tumultuous trade war and it is easy to see why everyone is nervous. On the other hand, corporate earnings continue to be strong.

(New York)

The fee war on ETF trading continues, both for advisors and for retail. Trading platforms providers have been engaged in an ongoing struggle to attract assets by slashing the price of trading, and Vanguard just took a big step. While Vanguard used to charge retail investors a flat fee for trades depending on their AUM (trading Vanguard funds was always free), the company is now cutting transaction fees for aboutx 1,800 ETFs on its platform. No more trading fees at all. The move follows Fidelity’s recent addition of more fee-free ETFs. FINSUM: This is a big deal. 1,800 fee-free ETFs dwarfs the competition and we definitely think it will help Vanguard gather more assets, both retail and institutional.

(Houston)

The energy market has been doing well and some argue that the world is in the middle of an oil shock, or a condition where prices are very elevated because of a lack of supply. With that in mind, Goldman Sachs has published a piece choosing a couple stocks for investors to play the current oil market. The two stocks are Chevron and Canadian Natural Resources. Both have been laggards recently, but that helped them get the “Buy” rating from Goldman. The bank does not doubt Chevron’s ability to execute (unlike the market), and thinks that the announcement of some new projects will help propel the stock.

FINSUM: Hard to believe we could be in an oil shock when only recently it seemed we had an overwhelming glut.

(New York)

You have heard it before, and while you might not want to, you need to hear it again. All signs point to the fact that ETFs will likely be the epicenter of the next big market blow up. Investors will be familiar with the argument that the “liquidity mismatch” between ETFs and underlying bonds is a big problem, but the reality is that this is also the case in stocks. While small caps and other less-liquid stocks pose a big threat to ETFs which track them, in a market downturn, even quite liquid shares might be set alight by forced panicked selling by ETFs. Bloomberg gives and an example “Imagine that one big investor in an ETF with, say, a 10 percent stake is forced to sell a large part its holding in a single day. There might not be ready buyers for such a large holding, causing the ETF to fall to a price below the value of the assets it owns. This price impact may be exaggerated, as ETF activity intensifies both upswings and downswings”.

FINSUM: The fact that there are also big risks in equities really opened our eyes. We knew about the bond liquidity issue, but the fact that it extends to both small and large cap equities is quite concerning. Then again, there is a fatalistic logic where this all makes sense: ETFs have been the big growth driver since the Crisis, so it makes sense they would be the epicenter of the next one.