(New York)

We have been hearing it for a couple of months now—it is time for financial stocks to shine. Yet, financial shares are having a pretty poor year. The reason appears to be the flattened yield curve. However, a new academic study finds that it is not primarily the yield curve, but rather short-term rates alone that dictate most of financial share performance. The spread between government and corporate bonds is also a factor. Looking at historical performance of financials as compared to rates, it seems like financial shares are about 9% below their fair value.

FINSUM: As our readers will know, we are not fond of historically-driven strategies, but we do give this one credit in that it is finally a new way of looking at the situation in bank shares.

(New York)

One of the bright spots in the stock market right now is that analysts have been revising up their earnings estimates. That is a break from usual practice and is being driven by increasingly rosy views of how tax cuts will play out for companies. But those revisions create opportunities, especially for stocks which are seeing enhanced forecasts but whose share prices have been stagnant. According to Barron’s, Intel, Marathon Petroleum, Lockheed Martin, and Michael Kors, all look likely to do well in the near-term because of this mismatch. Intel, for instance, has seen soaring revenue numbers and trades at only 13x projected earnings.

FINSUM: The logic on these picks is interesting, as it seems to be a short to medium-term value play. Interesting and diverse group of names to look at.

(Chicago)

It was only a matter of time until US industry started to feel the pain of the current American-led trade war. Now it is happening. US manufacturers are reporting rising costs and difficulties in sourcing ahead of the tariff deadline. These companies say that the metal tariffs, combined with the threat of falling export business, all caused by tariffs, is threatening to make them stop hiring or making new investments. “We had a good year last year, and we’re in the middle of a good year this year. But we are very concerned about the tariffs”, says an Ohio manufacturer of excavation equipment.

FINSUM:That penultimate sentence is the most scary of all—that manufacturers may stop hiring and investing. That would be a leading indicator of a coming recession, especially if it has a trickle down effect to other sectors.

(New York)

Yields have been pinned for several weeks now. Ten-year US Treasuries are currently trading around 2.86% and have been at that level for some time, while thirty-year bonds are also under 3%. The typical reasons cited for this are the looming trade war and fear of recession, which makes the bonds look attractive. However, there may be a much less obvious reason yields are staying low—a poorly known tax benefit being exploited by institutional investors. Pension funds have been devouring Treasuries as the new tax cuts incentivize companies to contribute majorly to their pension funding. And since pension funds tend to invest in long-dated bonds as a way of matching their liability timeline, long-dated Treasuries have seen massive inflows.

FINSUM: There has been so much speculation about yields being pinned, and one of the main reasons behind it seems to be a tax incentive. Very interesting to know that it is not necessarily the economic environment keeping downward pressure on yields.

(New York)

Not only is the broker protocol collapsing underneath the feet of advisors, but a new court ruling has just set a precedent which will likely make it harder for advisors to switch firms. A recent ruling by the Georgia Court of Appeals says that advisors who have agreed in a contract to give advance notice of departure, but then do not, are not covered by the Broker Protocol. The case stemmed from a smaller firm, Aprio Wealth Management, making a claim against a group of advisors who moved to Morgan Stanley. “We’re really pleased with the court-of-appeals ruling on this case … We think it’s a very meaningful decision for small and midsize firms, especially for registered investment advisers that can feel confident they’ll be protected from poaching like happened to us”.

FINSUM: The bottom line of this story seems to be that one needs to make sure to give appropriate notice. However, that is not always be easy as there might be extenuating circumstances.