Markets
A, um, fixation, among investors this year: the performance of fixed income assets, according to Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo published several reports on issues playing a role in the challenging environment today. The intent of the executive summary was to address heard often voiced by investors. Some of the top questions revolving around fixed income included:
- What is happening to bonds so far in 2022?
- Why continue to invest in bonds?
- Why is the Fed garnering so much attention this year?
- What should investors expect from the remaining three Fed meetings of this year?
- What does Fed quantitative tightening mean?
- What do you mean when you say, “financial conditions in the economy are tightening”?
- Should we be worried about liquidity in bond markets?
Equity and fixed income markets simultaneously endured negative returns in the first of the year – catching a number of investors off guard. While all major fixed indexes bounced back in July in light of receding yields, year to date, they remain negative.
Inflation? Yep; it’s stuck in gear; that is, elevated. Meantime, the broader economic environment – especially the labor market, has proved to be one tough cookie, according to gsam.com.
”Higher inflation and higher growth volatility are propelling us into a higher yield environment, marking a departure from the post-financial crisis era,” according to Whitney Watson, global head of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, Construction & Risk. “Ultimately, we think this presents opportunities in high-quality fixed income assets, such as investment grade corporate bonds and agency MBS.”
State Street Global Advisors is teaming up with Barclays’ research business to build and manage active products in systematic fixed income. While systematic equity strategies have been around for a while, the strategy is somewhat new to fixed income due to a lack of data. While most stock trades are easy to track, fixed-income trades are typically over-the-counter, with electronic platforms only handling a part of the business. This makes accessing and harvesting data in fixed-income markets more complex. However, that’s changing. Efficiency in the bond markets is increasing the viability of implementing systematic debt strategies. With fixed income, managers attempt to generate alpha through data analysis that uncovers asset mispricing, according to SSGA. This comes as the demand for systematic fixed income is increasing. According to a State Street survey of 700 investors, 91 percent of institutions are interested in using systematic fixed-income strategies over the next 12 months. The survey also showed that investors managing more than $10 billion were most interested in implementing these strategies using investment-grade and high-yield corporate securities.
Finsum: As demand for systematic fixed-income strategies heats up, State Street Global Advisors and Barclays are teaming up to build and manage active systematic fixed income strategies.
According to an index that measures Treasury market volatility, bond volatility is at a level not seen since the peak of the COVID market crisis in March 2020. This is a worrisome sign that the Treasuries markets, which are considered a safe haven for investors, are not functioning as they should. For context, the biggest one-day move for the benchmark 10-year Treasury in 2021 was 0.16. This year, there have been seven days with larger moves. Liquidity is evaporating, which has caused the soaring volatility. A Bloomberg index is currently showing that liquidity in the Treasury markets is worse now than in the early days of the pandemic, while implied volatility, measured by the ICE BofA MOVE Index is near its highest since 2009. This is coming at a time when Bloomberg News reports that the largest buyers of Treasuries, including Japanese pensions, life insurers, foreign governments, and US commercial banks, are pulling back at the same time. Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed concern about a potential breakdown in trading, saying that her department is “worried about a loss of adequate liquidity” in the US government securities market.
Finsum: A lack of liquidity and a pullback in large-scale treasury purchases has triggered volatility not seen since March 2020.
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When it comes to direct indexing, a little daylight seems to be peeking in.
As investors, young and old, flock to ETFs, you might say direct indexing’s keeping an eye out for its lane, according to blomberg.com.
Two hands on the wheel, of course.
Questions surface about whether investors have an inclination to dive into direct indexing in light of the burgeoning attraction to ETFs, notes new research from Schwab.
If you have an appetite for index funds and ETFs, but greater control over fund holdings and the possibility to outperform, direct indexing just might float your boat, according to schwab.com.
By paring down costs while stepping up access among investors to different segments of the market, index funds and ETFs have put an entirely new face on investing. That said, when it comes to direct investing, contrary to performance historically, make way for the fly in the ointment: when it comes to control over the fund’s individual holdings, control – perhaps of any sort – is nonexistent.
However, times, it seems, have changed. Limited, back in the day, to institutional and high-net-worth investors, today, direct indexing’s available to a wider range of investors. Why? Technological strides, which have coaxed down investment minimums.
Direct indexing, of course, is surging in popularity, according to barrons.com. While Fidelity, Schwab and Vanguard have initiated direct indexing products over the past year or so, direct indexing’s leveraged by only 12% of advisors. Not to pile on – but piling on – a survey showed, when it comes to direct indexing, half of advisors have too clue what it is.
Um, someone say Wikepedia?
It might be a bit brisk north of the border, but at least some fixed income ETFs seem to be hot in Canada, according to moneysense.ca.
In the aftermath of around 20 years of essentially solid returns, as interest rates nudge yields up and drive down prices, bond portfolios are absorbing some body blows. the iShares Core Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF (XBB) – which missed the panel’s picks of best fixed income ETFs for portfolios – still dispenses broad exposure to investment-grade Canadian bonds.
“I’m not committed to bonds at all,” says panellist Yves Rebetez. “People are now seeing the truth in the descriptive ‘return-free risk’ that some have been pointing to for a while. This ‘return-free risk’ is a tongue-in-cheek play on that. Who wants to invest in risk, void of potential returns?”
Opting for cost efficient funds like ETFs in Canada and elsewhere, the variety of them is, well, substantial, according to wealthawesome.com. As last year wound down, there were 1,177 Canadian listed ETFs in Canada.
Canadian ETFS are available in every shape and size. Among that wide range of options, it’s key to buckle down on the best funds.
Most portfolios commonly carry fixed income or bond ETFs – particularly if risk doesn’t float the boast of those investors who are most risk repellant.
Want to talk logic? For a second? A combination of income exchange-traded funds are most, well, logical for a substantial chunk of investors.
Based on research released Monday, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes that small-cap stocks have already priced in a recession and are currently de-risked. Calvasina noted that small-cap performance has been stable since January and is in a narrow trading range in comparison to large-caps. She stated, “While this doesn’t necessarily tell us that a bottom in the broader U.S. equity market is imminent, it does tell us that the equity market is behaving rationally. It has been our view for quite some time that small-caps, which underperformed large-cap dramatically in 2021, have already been de-risked and are baking in a recession.” She also pointed out the sectors that tend to perform best in the period leading up to the final rate increase in a rate-hike cycle. These include defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, and utilities. Calvasina wrote the sectors “tended to perform the best within the major index in the six-, three- and one-month periods before the final hikes in the past four Fed tightening cycles.”
Finsum: In a recent research note, Head RBC equity strategist Lori Calvasina believes that stable returns of small-cap stocks are due to recessionary factors already priced in.